XRP Whale Activity and the Impending Market Shift in 2026

The XRP market is on the cusp of a significant transformation in 2026, driven by on-chain behavioral patterns and capital reallocation among the top 10,000 wallets. These movements, analyzed through the lens of whale activity, reveal a complex interplay of accumulation, redistribution, and strategic positioning that could signal a broader market shift.

Concentration of Holdings and Accumulation Trends

The top 10,000 XRP wallets now control 51.39 billion XRP, representing 85% of the circulating supply. This concentration underscores a growing trend of institutional and large-holder dominance in the XRP ecosystem. Notably, 78 new wallets accumulated 77.324 million XRP in a single day, while 246 existing wallets increased their balances by 17.91 million XRP. This surge in accumulation suggests that both new and established large holders are aggressively repositioning their portfolios.

The remaining whale wallets-those holding over 100 million XRP-have also seen a seven-year high in holdings, reaching 48 billion XRP, despite a 20.6% decline in the number of such wallets over two months. This consolidation into fewer, larger wallets indicates a shift toward long-term accumulation strategies, potentially signaling confidence in XRP's future value.

Whale Selling Pressures and Price Implications

However, the narrative is not entirely bullish. In November 2025, XRP whales executed a massive $4.11 billion sell-off, offloading 2.2 billion XRP-the largest 30-day sell-off since March 2023. This massive outflow coincided with a 7% price drop, pushing XRP below $2.05. Such selling pressures highlight the dual nature of whale behavior: while accumulation suggests optimism, large-scale sales can exacerbate short-term volatility.

Yet, the market response to these sales was not uniform. Some whale wallets added 150 million XRP in late November, indicating a mixed on-chain sentiment. This duality-selling by some whales versus accumulation by others-reflects a broader repositioning rather than a net bearish stance.

Ripple's Escrow Activity and Market Supply

Ripple's monthly escrow practices further complicate the on-chain landscape. In December 2025, the company moved 1 billion XRP, with 700 million tokens locked in escrow. This aligns with its standard practice but also highlights the company's role in managing market supply. However, delayed escrow releases, as seen in previous months, have created uncertainty about the timing of token availability, potentially amplifying price swings.

Capital Reallocation and Strategic Repositioning

The top 10,000 wallets are not merely accumulating; they are actively reshuffling their holdings. For instance, 78 large wallets were fully emptied, releasing 108 million XRP for reaccumulation. This dynamic suggests a strategic redistribution of capital, possibly in anticipation of regulatory clarity or macroeconomic shifts in 2026.

Notably, Bithumb's exchange wallet moved 2.819 million XRP, a move analysts attribute to routine fund management rather than a bearish signal. Such activity underscores the importance of distinguishing between operational liquidity needs and speculative selling.

The Role of XRP ETFs in Market Dynamics

The emergence of XRP spot ETFs has further altered the capital flow landscape. These funds have attracted substantial inflows, driving tokens from exchanges to custodial wallets. This shift reflects growing institutional confidence in XRP and could stabilize the market by reducing exchange-based selling pressure.

Implications for 2026

The confluence of these factors points to a potential inflection point in 2026. The 1.80–2.00 USD price zone has become a focal area for whale transactions, with large holders buying at elevated prices. If this trend continues, it could reinforce $2 as a critical support level, setting the stage for a breakout.

Moreover, the 85% concentration of XRP in the top 10,000 wallets suggests that whale behavior will remain a key driver of price action. Should these holders shift from accumulation to distribution, the market could face renewed volatility. Conversely, sustained accumulation and ETF-driven inflows may catalyze a bullish reversal.

Conclusion

XRP's on-chain activity in late 2025 and early 2026 reveals a market in transition. While whale selling pressures have tested short-term resilience, the broader trend of accumulation, coupled with institutional adoption via ETFs, hints at a potential long-term re-rating. Investors must closely monitor whale behavior and capital reallocation patterns, as these will likely dictate the trajectory of XRP in the months ahead.