XRP's Undervalued Momentum in a Ranging Market

XRP's 2025 price narrative has been defined by a paradox: robust on-chain accumulation coexisting with a stagnant price range. While retail and institutional forces have injected momentum, technical and fundamental headwinds persist. This analysis dissects the interplay of on-chain buying pressure, institutional demand, and market structure to assess whether XRP's current consolidation phase masks untapped potential-or signals a cautionary pause.

On-Chain Buying Pressure: Accumulation Amid Fading Profitability

XRP's on-chain metrics reveal a market in flux. According to a Glassnode report, address activity surged by +490% year-to-date, while the Realized Cap-a measure of total value locked in active addresses-nearly doubled, reflecting aggressive retail accumulation. However, this optimism is tempered by a rapid fade in profitability, as short-term holders (STHs) have offloaded gains, suggesting speculative fervor may be waning, the Glassnode report added.

The Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio, a gauge of market efficiency, has declined by 30% since January 2025, indicating that XRP's price growth lags behind network activity, according to a CCN analysis. This divergence often precedes undervaluation, as seen in historical cycles of Bitcoin and Ethereum. For XRP, the NVT trough could signal a mispricing opportunity-if institutional capital aligns with retail sentiment.

Institutional Interest: ETFs as a Catalyst for $5

Six active XRP ETF products, as noted in a Coinpedia analysis, have injected over $1.2 billion in inflows since March 2025, with institutional demand concentrated in Q3. These funds, managed by firms like Grayscale and Bitwise, have become net buyers during XRP's consolidation phase, accumulating below $3.00. The ETF-driven buying pressure is critical: institutional investors typically favor assets with strong on-chain fundamentals, and XRP's Realized Cap growth has made it a compelling candidate, Glassnode reported.

However, the path to $5-a price target cited by multiple analysts-hinges on overcoming structural challenges. Scheduled escrow releases have increased XRP's circulating supply by 12% in 2025, diluting the impact of ETF inflows, Coinpedia noted. Meanwhile, the $2.70–$2.75 support range, as highlighted by AnalyticsInsight, remains a psychological battleground; a breakdown here could trigger a retest of 2024 lows.

Technical Patterns: A Ranging Market at a Crossroads

XRP's price action since July 2025 has formed a dual pattern: an ascending triangle (bullish) and a descending triangle (bearish), as detailed in a Blocknews technical analysis. This duality reflects conflicting market forces-retail buyers pushing higher and institutional sellers defending key resistance. The impending October–December 2025 timeframe, as noted by CCN, is pivotal: a breakout above $3.20 could validate the ascending triangle and align with ETF-driven bullish momentum, while a breakdown below $2.70 would signal capitulation.

Balancing the Equation: Undervaluation or Overhang?

The case for XRP's undervaluation rests on three pillars:

1. Retail Accumulation: The +490% address activity spike suggests a broadening base of holders.

2. Institutional Validation: ETF inflows have transformed XRP from a speculative asset to a regulated investment vehicle.

3. Technical Setup: A breakout from the ranging pattern could unlock multi-month gains.

Yet risks remain. The rising supply from escrow releases-a unique feature of XRP's design-could negate ETF-driven demand if not offset by sustained buying pressure. Additionally, the lack of a clear use-case narrative (e.g., DeFi adoption or cross-border payment dominance) leaves XRP vulnerable to sentiment shifts.

Conclusion: A High-Probability Trade in a Low-Volatility Environment

XRP's 2025 trajectory exemplifies the tension between accumulation and distribution. While on-chain metrics and institutional interest point to undervaluation, the asset's ranging pattern underscores market indecision. For investors, the key is to balance optimism with caution: a breakout above $3.20 could catalyze a move toward $5, but a breakdown below $2.70 would necessitate a reassessment of the bullish thesis. In a market defined by extremes, XRP's current phase may be the calm before a storm-or a warning shot.