XRP Trades Near $1.07 Amid 13-Year Low Momentum and ETF Inflows

• XRP trades near $1.07, down 43% year-to-date, with monthly momentum hitting a 13-year low despite steady ETF inflows.
• Spot XRP funds recorded $27.29 million in July inflows, though Grayscale sold $180.78 million in H1 2026 to meet redemptions.
• The token defends critical support at $1.00, with a decisive break below potentially exposing it to further selling toward $0.95.
• Cross-chain interoperability with Axelar expands XRP utility to 80+ blockchains, though single-bridge risks remain a concern.

XRP is trading in a tight range between $1.06 and $1.08, reflecting a prolonged period of consolidation for the digital asset. The token has declined approximately 43% year-to-date, significantly underperforming broader cryptocurrency benchmarks . This downward trajectory is accompanied by extreme technical weakness, with analysts noting that monthly momentum has reached its weakest level in over 13 years .

Crypto analyst Cryptollica highlighted that this oversold condition is deeper than corrections seen in 2014, 2018, 2020, and 2022 . The asset is currently testing a long-term rising base support level that has historically attracted buyers . Despite these bearish indicators, the price has found a floor near $1.00, where buyers are attempting to defend the zone against further selling pressure .

The daily relative strength index (RSI) sits at 45.73, while the 4-hour RSI hovers near 52, suggesting that selling momentum may be decelerating . However, XRP continues to trade below its 50-period and 100-period moving averages on the 4-hour chart . The 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $1.397 acts as a significant overhead barrier that buyers must clear to signal a trend reversal .

How Are ETF Flows Shaping XRP Demand?

Spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded four consecutive months of inflows, indicating persistent institutional interest despite the price decline . In the week leading to August 4, 2026, inflows totaled $14.86 million, with Bitwise leading at $10.15 million and Franklin Templeton adding $4.70 million . Cumulative net inflows remain robust at $1.51 billion, with total assets under management reaching $993.38 million.

However, outflows from specific funds have offset some of this positive momentum. Grayscale’s XRP Trust disclosed the sale of over $180 million worth of XRP in the first half of 2026 . The fund reduced its holdings from 122.23 million XRP at the end of 2025 to 55.04 million by June 30, 2026, primarily to meet investor redemption requests and cover sponsor fees .

A reported $3.58 million net redemption from the Bitwise XRP ETF on August 5, 2026, sparked speculation about a bearish shift. However, official data indicates this outflow is a routine operational event where authorized participants redeem shares . Redemptions are settled either in-kind or via cash sales, meaning the outflow does not necessarily reflect a discretionary sell-off by the sponsor .

Bitwise’s activity highlighted a strategic rotation within its product suite, as its Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs attracted nearly $12 million in new capital during the same period . This shift aligns with XRP underperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum on a year-to-date basis, with XRP falling 43% compared to declines of 26% and 36% respectively .

What Are the Technical Risks and Regulatory Outlook?

XRP is consolidating in a critical demand zone between $1.00 and $1.03, where buyers are accumulating ahead of a potential medium-term trend reversal . If bulls can reclaim the $1.12 to $1.20 range, the current consolidation may transform into a base-building pattern . A recovery above $1.05 would target $1.10, while a break above $1.20 could shift focus to $1.40 .

Conversely, a decisive break below the $1.00 floor would invalidate the current recovery thesis and likely expose XRP to another wave of selling toward the $0.90 region . The broader 2026 structure suggests a market transitioning out of a corrective phase, though it awaits confirmation of a sustained trend reversal .

Structural headwinds remain, including Ripple’s monthly escrow release which adds 200–300 million XRP to circulation monthly . Additionally, the CLARITY Act, which would shift regulatory oversight from the SEC to the CFTC, remains stalled in the Senate ahead of its August recess .

On the technological front, the XRP Ledger has integrated with Axelar’s interoperability network, enabling wrapped XRP to move across 80+ blockchains . This expansion aims to connect XRP to broader DeFi ecosystems and institutional use cases . However, cross-chain bridges carry significant risk, as Axelar’s position as the sole bridge for wrapped XRP concentrates this risk .

Investors should monitor adoption metrics, including the volume of wrapped XRP flowing through Axelar and whether DeFi protocols begin developing XRP-specific products . The immediate resistance remains at $1.70, with stronger supply between $2.60 and $2.80 .