XRP Tops $2 as TradFi Piles In: Do Charts Predict New Highs in 2026?

XRP has surpassed $2 for the first time this year, driven by continued institutional demand and regulatory developments. The token is trading within a range expected by analysts for 2026, with predictions of between $2.50 and $3.50 as a base-case scenario.

Institutional appetite for XRP remains evident, particularly through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, the first ETF outflow in January 2026 marked a shift, with $40.8 million withdrawn from XRP ETFs in a single day.

Regulatory clarity, particularly around the CLARITY Act, has helped reduce compliance risks for institutions. This development is seen as a key enabler for broader adoption of digital assets like XRP.

Why Did ETF Inflows Stall in January 2026?

The sudden outflow in XRP ETFs came after 54 consecutive days of inflows. The shift was most pronounced in the 21Shares TOXR product, which saw $47.25 million in redemptions, pushing its cumulative flow into negative territory.

Other ETFs, including Bitwise, Canary, and Grayscale, also saw withdrawals, though smaller in magnitude. The outflow caused XRP's price to drop nearly 14% in the short term, highlighting the sensitivity of the market to institutional flows.

Analysts have pointed to supply dynamics and macroeconomic factors as potential causes for the outflow. XRP's supply remains a headwind, and while exchange balances have declined by 57%, long-term sell pressure persists.

What Are Analysts Watching for 2026?

A key focus for investors and analysts is the sustainability of ETF inflows. If monthly inflows remain within the $300–500 million range, it could strengthen the supply removal thesis for XRP. This would lock an additional 750 million to 1.25 billion tokens by mid-2026.

Regulatory progress is another area of interest. The Senate's markup of market structure legislation in January 2026 could provide a clearer legal framework for banks to engage with digital assets.

The expansion of Ripple's RLUSD in Japan under the new stablecoin regulatory framework is also under scrutiny. Broader adoption of RLUSD could create recurring demand for XRP as a bridge asset.

How Does XRP Compare in the ETF Space?

XRP ETFs have drawn $1.2 billion in inflows since their launch, with net assets now at nearly $1.5 billion. Canary Capital leads the pack with $375 million in assets under management, followed closely by Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, and Grayscale.

Despite this growth, XRP ETFs trail significantly behind Bitcoin ETFs, which remain the most liquid and institutionally demanded digital asset products.

The competitive landscape has also seen some consolidation, with WisdomTree recently withdrawing its XRP ETF application. This follows a similar move by CoinShares in the U.S. market.

Is BlackRock Entering the XRP ETF Race in 2026?

Analysts and AI models suggest a moderate to high likelihood that BlackRock may launch a spot XRP ETF later in 2026. The regulatory landscape has become clearer following the resolution of Ripple's long-standing legal battle with the SEC.

With several spot XRP ETFs already attracting billions in assets, BlackRock's potential entry is seen as driven by the fear of missing out on a growing institutional opportunity.

If BlackRock moves forward, it would add to the existing lineup of providers and potentially boost institutional confidence in the asset class.