XRP/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• XRPUSDT declined from 2.26 to 2.237, with 6.1% consolidation into the close.
• Volume surged at key support levels, confirming price stability near 2.20.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish divergence mid-day, hinting at potential short-term pullback.

XRP/Tether (XRPUSDT) opened at 2.259 on November 4, 2025 (12:00 ET – 1), reached a high of 2.2879, and closed at 2.237 on November 5, 2025 (12:00 ET) after hitting a low of 2.0665. Total traded volume over 24 hours was 198,046,892.2 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $441,810,508 at varying price points.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish continuation pattern as XRPUSDT tested and bounced off key support at 2.20–2.21 before stabilizing. A large bearish engulfing pattern emerged between 2.24–2.21 late on November 4. A doji at 2.23–2.24 on the morning of November 5 suggests indecision and potential reversal. Resistance levels formed at 2.26, 2.28, and 2.288, with strong support near 2.20–2.21.

Moving Averages

Short-term 15-minute moving averages (20/50) showed a clear bearish crossover mid-day on November 4, confirming downward momentum. Daily 50/100/200 moving average crossovers were neutral, with price hovering near the 50-period line, suggesting consolidation ahead of a potential break.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory at 04:15 ET on November 5, aligning with the bearish price move. RSI fell into oversold territory twice—once at 2.20 and again at 2.21—suggesting potential support buying. However, price failed to close above 2.25, indicating weak bullish conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply after 20:00 ET on November 4 as price dropped from 2.24 to 2.16, with the low of 2.0665 falling well below the lower Bollinger Band. Price remained compressed within the bands for most of November 5, indicating a consolidation phase ahead of a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 2.20–2.21, confirming accumulation at key support. A divergence was noted in the final 4 hours—price rose from 2.21 to 2.25 while volume fell, hinting at potential exhaustion of the upward move. Turnover aligned with volume surges at 2.20 and 2.25, reinforcing price movements.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the 2.2879 high to 2.0665 low showed 61.8% retest at 2.1933 and 50% at 2.1772, where price found temporary support. On the 15-minute chart, 38.2% retracement at 2.234–2.236 acted as resistance, with price failing to close above that level.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the effectiveness of the observed patterns, a backtesting strategy could be designed using the corrected ticker format for XRPUSDT, such as XRPUSDT.BIN for Binance. A potential hypothesis involves entering long positions at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement with a stop loss below 50% and exiting at key resistance levels. Short positions could target the 38.2% retracement with a stop above 50% as a countermeasure against false breakouts. By testing this strategy across historical data, we could validate its robustness under varied volatility conditions. Using a 15-minute chart with MACD and RSI confirmation could further refine entry timing and improve risk-adjusted returns.

Given the current consolidation and technical indicators, XRPUSDT appears poised to either test 2.25 or retreat toward 2.20–2.21. Investors should watch for a breakout or breakdown of these levels, which could indicate the next directional move. Caution is advised, as volatility remains high and key indicators suggest a potential reversal is near.