XRP's Near-Term Technical Resilience Amid Institutional Accumulation and Market Uncertainty

In the third quarter of 2025, XRP has emerged as a focal point for value-oriented investors navigating a volatile crypto market. Despite broader uncertainty, the asset has demonstrated technical resilience and attracted significant institutional flows, positioning it as a compelling case study for strategic entry points. This analysis synthesizes on-chain data, technical indicators, and institutional activity to evaluate XRP's near-term prospects.

Technical Resilience and Key Price Levels

XRP's price action in Q3 2025 has been shaped by critical support and resistance levels. A breakdown below the $1.93 support zone in late December 2025 transformed this level into a resistance, while the $1.88 level emerged as immediate near-term support. Meanwhile, the $2.20 level has acted as a robust floor, with $2.00 representing a key psychological threshold according to market analysis. If $2.00 fails to hold, the price could retest the $1.80–$1.85 range. On the upside, reclaiming $2.40 would signal a shift in momentum, with $2.60, $2.80, and $3.00 serving as longer-term resistance targets according to technical indicators.

On-chain metrics reinforce this technical narrative. The XRP Ledger processed an average of 1.8 million daily transactions in Q3 2025, with 75% settling in under five seconds. This efficiency underscores XRP's utility in cross-border payments, a use case that remains central to Ripple's infrastructure strategy. Additionally, the ledger's Real-World Asset (RWA) market capitalization surged 215% to $364 million, reflecting growing institutional adoption.

Institutional Accumulation and ETF Momentum

Institutional demand for XRP has accelerated, driven by regulatory clarity and improved custody solutions. U.S.-listed spot XRP ETFs accumulated $897.35 million in net inflows since mid-November 2025, extending a 15-day consecutive inflow streak. These ETFs, now holding $1.16 billion in assets, have become the fastest-growing altcoin-linked products in the U.S.. This trend is further supported by XRP-related exchange-traded products, which saw $8.54 million in net inflows during the same period according to market data.

The surge in institutional interest is evident in on-chain activity. Daily active sender addresses on the XRP Ledger rose 15.4% quarter-over-quarter to 25,300, while total new addresses surged 46.3% to 447,200 according to on-chain metrics. This growth aligns with Ripple's On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) product, which facilitated $1.3 billion in cross-border payments during Q2 2025. Such data highlights XRP's role as a bridge between traditional finance and blockchain-based liquidity solutions.

Valuation Metrics and Market Sentiment

XRP's Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio reached a two-month high in Q3 2025, signaling potential short-term overvaluation as price outpaced network activity. While this metric suggests caution, the ledger's RWA market capitalization growth-driven by institutional settlements and cross-border use cases-provides a counterbalance according to market analysis. The NVT ratio's divergence from fundamentals underscores the importance of balancing technical analysis with on-chain utility when assessing XRP's valuation. Market sentiment has also been influenced by regulatory developments. The passage of the GENIUS Act in Q3 2025 provided a clearer framework for stablecoins, enabling traditional institutions to engage with tokenized assets. This regulatory tailwind, combined with improved custody infrastructure, has supported longer-term capital commitments into XRP .

Strategic Entry Points for Value-Oriented Investors

For value-oriented investors, XRP presents a nuanced opportunity. The $1.88–$1.93 range offers a potential entry point if the $2.00 level fails to hold, with the $2.20 support acting as a secondary floor according to technical analysis. Conversely, a breakout above $2.40 could trigger a reevaluation of bearish sentiment, with $2.60–$3.00 representing high-probability targets for a sustained uptrend according to market signals.

However, investors must remain cautious of the NVT ratio's overvaluation signal and the broader market's volatility. Diversifying exposure across XRP's technical levels and institutional inflows-while hedging against regulatory risks-could mitigate downside potential.

Conclusion

XRP's near-term technical resilience, coupled with robust institutional accumulation, positions it as a strategic asset for value-oriented investors. While the NVT ratio and market uncertainty warrant caution, the XRP Ledger's utility in cross-border payments and RWAs provides a strong foundation for long-term growth. Investors should monitor key support/resistance levels and institutional flows to capitalize on potential entry points in this dynamic market.