XRP's Technical Weakness and Whale Activity: A Cautionary Outlook Below $2.60

The XRP price action in October 2025 has painted a complex picture of short-term bearish momentum, with technical indicators and on-chain whale behavior reinforcing a cautious outlook for investors. While institutional adoption news has injected some optimism, the token's struggle to break above $2.70 and the persistent inactivity of large holders suggest that the $2.60 support zone remains a critical battleground.

Technical Weakness: A Bearish Crosscurrent

XRP's recent price performance below $2.60 has been marked by deteriorating technical indicators. The TD Sequential sell signal on the 4-hour chart-a tool with a three-month track record of reliable trend predictions-has raised alarms about a potential pullback. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) have shown signs of exhaustion, with the RSI hovering near oversold territory and the MACD histogram contracting, signaling waning bullish momentum, as noted in the same report.

The $2.60 support level has become a focal point for buyers, but the path to recovery is fraught with challenges. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2.68 and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at $2.72 have provided temporary respite, yet institutional traders are clustering short liquidations between $2.68 and $2.70. This thin liquidity layer above $2.70 increases the risk of a sharp reversal if resistance proves insurmountable, according to the earlier analysis.

Whale Inactivity: A Silent Bearish Signal

On-chain data reveals a striking lack of movement among XRP whales, defined as wallets holding 100,000 to 10 million XRP. Despite the token's prolonged bearish phase, these large holders have refrained from significant transactions for over two weeks, with total whale holdings remaining stable at approximately 12.97 billion XRP, according to a Coinotag report. This inactivity contrasts sharply with historical patterns, where whale movements often precede major price shifts.

The absence of whale participation is compounded by a sharp decline in XRP's on-chain utility. Daily payment volume has plummeted by nearly 70% from over 700 million transactions in early October to around 230 million by month's end, according to a Coinotag analysis. This drop raises concerns about the token's adoption in cross-border payments and remittances, sectors where XRP has traditionally found traction. Institutional players, wary of regulatory uncertainties and macroeconomic headwinds, appear to be scaling back their exposure, the analysis added.

Institutional Optimism vs. Market Realities

A silver lining for XRP emerged in late October with Evernorth's confirmed $1B treasury purchase, a move that underscores Ripple's growing institutional adoption. This development has temporarily neutralized bearish sentiment, with buyers reclaiming key Fibonacci levels and stabilizing above the 20-day EMA, as noted in subsequent coverage. However, the broader market context remains fragile.

Exchange netflows for XRP have shifted from massive outflows of $31.6 million to modest inflows of $653K, indicating that traders are preparing for hedging or distribution, and the DMI indicator's bearish lean at $2.70 suggests that directional strength remains weak. If XRP fails to break above $2.70, a retest of the $2.45–$2.40 range becomes increasingly likely.

Conclusion: A Tenuous Balance

The XRP market is caught in a tug-of-war between institutional optimism and technical bearishness. While Evernorth's treasury purchase offers a lifeline, the token's inability to overcome $2.70 resistance and the absence of whale-driven buying pressure paint a cautionary picture. Investors should closely monitor the $2.60 support zone, as its integrity will determine whether XRP enters a deeper correction or stabilizes for a potential rebound. For now, the data suggests that patience-and a healthy dose of risk management-is warranted.