XRP's Technical Outlook Post-Death Cross: A Momentum-Based Risk Assessment

The Death Cross: A Bearish Catalyst with Historical Precedent

XRP's recent death cross-where the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossed below the 200-day SMA-has reignited bearish sentiment among traders. This pattern, historically associated with prolonged price declines, last signaled a 25% drop between May and July 2023, according to FXEmpire. Compounding this signal is a double death cross on the XRP/BTC chart, with both the 23-day and 50-day SMAs breaching the 200-day SMA, amplifying the downtrend's strength, per CoinEdition. On-chain metrics further corroborate this bearish narrative: the MVRV ratio has crossed below its 200-day SMA, forming another death cross and suggesting deeper corrections are underway, according to CoinCentral.

Momentum-based indicators reinforce the risk profile. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54 indicates a neutral phase, often preceding a decisive move, as noted in a WRAL report, while the Ichimoku Cloud shows price trading below the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines, with the Kumo cloud acting as resistance, as reported by The Bit Journal. A breakdown below $2.20–$2.00 could trigger a 50% decline toward $1.10, as outlined by an inverse cup-and-handle pattern, a scenario previously flagged by FXEmpire.

Contrarian Signals: Momentum Shifts and Institutional Catalysts

Despite these bearish signals, momentum-based risk assessment must account for emerging bullish catalysts. A bullish MACD cross on the daily chart has pushed XRP past $3.00, signaling a potential shift in momentum, as noted in the WRAL report. The token's consolidation above $2.50 support, coupled with a rising Awesome Oscillator (AO), suggests growing buying pressure, a dynamic highlighted by FXEmpire. Additionally, the Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio has dipped to undervalued levels, hinting at a potential re-rating of XRP's utility, another point raised by FXEmpire.

A critical wildcard is the pending approval of eight major XRP ETF applications from institutions like Grayscale and Franklin Templeton, with decisions due between October 18 and 25, as covered by The Bit Journal. Historical precedents show that institutional inflows via ETFs can unlock billions in capital, potentially propelling XRP toward $5 if approved, a scenario discussed by CoinCentral. This aligns with seasonal trends: October, historically dubbed "Uptober," has seen crypto assets rally by an average of 27% for Bitcoin and 51% for altcoins in Q4, a pattern noted by The Bit Journal.

Risk Assessment: Balancing Bearish Momentum and Structural Catalysts

Momentum-based risk models must weigh conflicting signals. While the death cross and MVRV death cross suggest a high probability of further downside, the MACD cross and NVT divergence indicate a potential reversal. The RSI's neutral reading (54) implies a cooling-off period, but its proximity to oversold levels on the weekly XRP/BTC chart offers cautious optimism, a nuance noted by CoinEdition.

Technical resistance at $3.00 and $2.94 remains critical. A sustained break above these levels could validate a bullish breakout to $4.00–$5.00, as CoinEdition outlines, while a failure to hold above $2.80 support risks a retest of $2.50–$2.00, per The Bit Journal. Institutional sentiment also plays a role: XRP's $160 billion market cap, while substantial, may limit explosive gains without ETF-driven inflows, another point The Bit Journal highlights.

Conclusion: A Tipping Point for XRP

XRP's technical outlook in October 2025 reflects a tug-of-war between bearish momentum and structural catalysts. The death cross and on-chain metrics signal elevated risk, but bullish divergences in momentum indicators and ETF-related optimism present a path to recovery. Investors must monitor key levels ($3.00, $2.80) and the SEC's ETF rulings, which could redefine XRP's trajectory. In a momentum-driven market, patience and position sizing will be paramount as the asset navigates this critical juncture.