XRP's Technical Deterioration and the Vanishing $2 Price Target: A Bollinger Bands Analysis of Downside Momentum and Risk Management

The XRP price action in late 2025 paints a grim picture for bulls, with technical indicators and on-chain data converging on a bearish narrative. As the asset struggles to reclaim the $2 psychological threshold, Bollinger Bands-a staple of volatility-driven analysis-offer critical insights into the accelerating downside momentum and the fragility of near-term price stability.

Bollinger Bands and the Death Spiral

XRP's current position near the lower Bollinger Band underscores persistent selling pressure. According to a report by The Cryptobasic, the token has been "hugging the lower band," a classic sign of bearish exhaustion as reported by The Cryptobasic. A close below the $1.85 level could trigger a volatility expansion, potentially accelerating the decline toward $1.70 or lower. This dynamic is compounded by the broader daily chart context: XRP trades below the 20, 50, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), forming a textbook "death cross" that signals prolonged bearish bias.

While short-term stabilizing forces-such as the price stabilizing near the upper Bollinger Band on the 1-hour chart-suggest a minor bounce according to analysis, these movements remain confined within a descending channel. For bulls to regain control, XRP must break above $1.89, a level that has repeatedly failed to hold in recent weeks according to technical reports. Until then, the Bollinger Bands framework reinforces a high-probability scenario of continued downside.

RSI and MACD: Confirming the Bear Case

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) further corroborates the bearish thesis. At 33.4, XRP's RSI indicates neutral conditions, but the MACD line's position below the signal line confirms ongoing bearish momentum. On the 3-day RSI, however, a glimmer of hope emerges: the indicator has dropped to 39, mirroring levels observed in November 2024 before a 580% rally. While this suggests a potential reversal, the broader context-XRP's 66-day stay below the 50-week SMA-points to a more complex scenario. Historically, such periods have preceded explosive rallies (e.g., 857% in 2024), but the market must first endure a "death cross" phase.

On-Chain Activity: A Double-Edged Sword

On-chain data reveals a paradox: 844 million XRP transferred between accounts in a single day, signaling capital movement. While this could presage a future recovery, the current price remains trapped in a descending channel, with key support levels at $1.83 and resistance near $1.93. Elevated trading volume without sustained upward movement highlights a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, with bears currently dominating.

Risk Management and the Vanishing $2 Target

For investors, the $2 price target has become increasingly elusive. Bollinger Bands suggest that any short-term rallies are likely to be short-lived unless XRP can break above $1.89 and sustain momentum. Meanwhile, a breakdown below $1.85 would validate a reassertion of bearish control, potentially accelerating the decline toward $1.70. Risk management strategies must prioritize stop-loss orders near these critical levels, given the fragile equilibrium in price action.

Conclusion: A Bearish Bias with Historical Caveats

While the technical landscape for XRP remains bearish, history offers a caveat. The token's 66-day stay below the 50-week SMA-a precursor to an 857% rally in 2024-suggests that a prolonged downturn could eventually reverse as observed in 2024. However, this scenario hinges on XRP first enduring a "death cross" phase and overcoming current resistance. For now, the Bollinger Bands and broader technical indicators paint a clear picture: the $2 price target is vanishing, and downside momentum is accelerating.