XRP's TD Signal Faces Hurdles: Will ETF Hype Outpace Bearish Risks?

The XRP cryptocurrency has triggered a TD Sequential buy signal on its 4-hour chart, a technical indicator historically associated with trend reversals. This setup, which forms after nine consecutive candles close lower than those four periods earlier, suggests that XRP’s recent downtrend may be nearing exhaustion. Analysts highlight that the indicator has demonstrated a 60–70% success rate on longer-term XRP charts since 2022, with 70% of buy signals on the 2-week timeframe preceding major ralliesXRP Buy Signal Flashes; History Backs 70% Chance of Major Price Rally^[1]. The latest signal coincides with XRP trading near $3, a price level it has struggled to break above for weeksXRP May Rebound After TD Sequential Buy Signal, Backed by Indicators’ Historical Accuracy and ETF Catalysts^[2].

Key catalysts are expected to amplify the potential rebound. The recent launch of the first U.S.-listed spot XRP ETF (XRPR) by REX Shares and Grayscale’s approved multi-crypto fund, which includes XRP, have bolstered bullish sentiment. With over 10 additional XRP ETF applications pending SEC approval by October, analysts estimate a 95% chance of approvals, further fueling market optimismXRP Buy Signal Flashes; History Backs 70% Chance of Major Price Rally^[1]. Wealth manager Nate Geraci has forecasted a “wild” few months for XRP amid these developments, noting that past rebounds were strongest when buy signals aligned with key support levels, such as $2.70 in 2025XRP Buy Signal Flashes; History Backs 70% Chance of Major Price Rally^[1].

Technical analysis reinforces the case for a rebound. Exchange netflows turned positive on September 1, 2025, with $1.92 million inflows ending weeks of outflows, signaling renewed short-term interest. Volume has also surged 11% as XRP approached $2.80, a level that could trigger a 10% rally toward $3.10 if the TD Sequential signal holds. Analyst Ali Martinez emphasized the setup’s significance, stating XRP is now a “buy” for traders seeking a potential breakoutXRP Buy Signal Flashes; History Backs 70% Chance of Major Price Rally^[1]. Historical backtests from 2017–2024 further support the indicator’s reliability, with 65% of weekly signals proving accurateXRP May Rebound After TD Sequential Buy Signal, Backed by Indicators’ Historical Accuracy and ETF Catalysts^[2].

However, experts caution that the TD Sequential is not infallible. A mid-2023 buy signal failed amid regulatory uncertainty, resulting in a 5% drawdownXRP Buy Signal Flashes; History Backs 70% Chance of Major Price Rally^[1]. Traders are advised to pair the indicator with confirmatory signals, such as bullish candlestick patterns or MACD crossovers, before entering positionsXRP Buy Signal Flashes; History Backs 70% Chance of Major Price Rally^[1]. Additionally, over $10 million in XRP moved to exchanges in the past 24 hours, suggesting some holders may be preparing to sell.

Despite these risks, the convergence of technical indicators and macro-level catalysts has drawn significant attention. XRP advocate Bill Morgan cited Grok AI’s analysis, which underscores the TD Sequential’s track record of accurate buy calls since 2022XRP Buy Signal Flashes; History Backs 70% Chance of Major Price Rally^[1]. With the asset currently testing the $2.825 resistance level, a breakout could trigger a wave of short liquidation and propel XRP toward $3.10. Market participants will closely monitor whether this signal marks the start of a new bullish phase, as historical data and ETF momentum align to create a favorable environment for XRP.