XRP Surges 1.589% as On-Chain Activity and Institutional Interest Rise

XRP's latest price was $3.23, up 1.589% in the last 24 hours. The cryptocurrency is currently testing a critical resistance level, with analysts targeting Wave 3 price points above $13, supported by rising on-chain accumulation and a bullish market structure. The technical pattern of XRP mirrors historical Elliott Wave patterns, particularly the Wave 3 phase seen in previous bull cycles of 2017 and 2021. Analysts note retracements near Fibonacci levels 1.618 and 2.618, which typically precede strong upward moves. The current structure shows XRP forming higher lows on weekly and monthly charts, maintaining support above $2.90.

Analysts forecast Wave 3 price targets at $13.13, $18.22, and $36.76, reflecting potential strong rallies. The immediate resistance zone at $3.25 is crucial; a break above could open the path to $3.80–$4.30. Despite slowing momentum indicated by RSI and MACD, the overall bullish trend remains intact, supported by price stability above $2.75.

Data from CoinGlass indicates a decline in XRP futures open interest from $10.94 billion to approximately $9 billion over the past week, signaling some traders are reducing exposure. Funding rates have turned negative, reflecting increased short positions and short-term bearish sentiment. Conversely, on-chain metrics show rising wallet activity and net outflows from exchanges, indicating accumulation by long-term holders. This suggests early positioning for a potential rally despite short-term caution in derivatives markets.

Onchain data reveals that a wallet widely thought to belong to Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen has shuffled close to 60 million XRP since July 15. Despite the flurry of activity, the wallet still sits on a hefty stash—282.49 million XRP. Eight XRP wallets suspected to be tied to Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen are tagged 1 through 8 on xrpscan.com. Wallets 1 to 4 each hold slightly more than 500 million XRP, while wallet 5 contains 282.49 million, and wallet 6 stores 300.18 million. Wallet 7 carries a tiny 21.79 XRP, and the 8th wallet holds a cool 1,000,009 XRP. The first four have never made an outbound transfer, but wallet 5 is the one that kicked off nearly 60 million XRP in movements starting July 15. Onchain detective ZachXBT first spotlighted the large transfers on Thursday, noting that “$140M ended up at exchanges/services” since July 17. Two days earlier, Larsen’s wallet labeled 5 initiated a small test transaction—1.6 XRP to Coinbase. That was quickly followed by four separate transfers of 2 million XRP each to the exchange. Other addresses, including one labeled “rHtLaipqqfbhg,” also received XRP and might be linked to an exchange, OTC desk, or institution. Collectively, Larsen’s eight wallets still hold 2.58 billion XRP. Wallets 6 through 8 have been quiet for some time, while wallet five had earlier activity. For example, 1.5 million XRP was sent to Coinbase on June 16. In fact, June saw a sizable flow of XRP from wallet 5 to multiple destinations, including “rHtLaipqqfbhg.” It’s no secret that Ripple’s co-founders amassed and retained vast reserves of XRP. Jed McCaleb is widely believed to have liquidated much of his early holdings. Larsen, on the other hand, was also hit by a wallet hack on Jan. 30, 2024, which drained roughly 213 million XRP. Reports indicate the breach stemmed from the 2022 Lastpass security failure. Underneath the surface, Larsen’s recent activity lies a deeper question: are these strategic reallocations, exchange-bound liquidations, or signals of something far more calculated?

XRP network activity has seen a significant drop following over $1 billion in whale transfers, primarily driven by institutional interests and initiatives in Japan. The surge in whale movements highlights mounting concerns about potential market volatility, indicating possible institutional strategy shifts and reflecting broader market uncertainties in the cryptocurrency sector. Recent on-chain data shows XRP whale transfers exceeding $1 billion daily, stemming from institutional and Japanese activity. Ripple Labs manages ongoing supply efforts, with Japanese exchanges amplifying their earn-XRP campaigns. The XRP network noted 2.08 million transactions, with futures open interest reaching $11 billion, suggesting large-scale institutional involvement. Market concerns arise from potential volatility following significant whale activities. The XRP asset experiences direct effects, while indirect impacts on altcoins are less pronounced. Speculation rises, but no substantial liquidity shifts are reported in available data. Past XRP whale activities have led to volatility, with market rallies or downturns. As analyst Tom Tucker states: "XRP had completed a bullish cup-and-handle breakout above $3.40, setting the stage for a potential rally toward $5.27." Historical patterns suggest similar events may yield significant price movements depending on broader market sentiment. Technical analysis highlights a potential rally, aligning with historical bull patterns—caveating market conditions and investor sentiment as critical factors.

According to CryptoQuant data, the record-breaking 7.24 million XRP Ledger wallets underscore a surge in adoption and accelerating on-chain activity. Notably, the launch of protocol-level Automated Market Makers (AMMs) and an EVM-compatible sidechain has ignited XRPL’s decentralized finance (DeFi) boom, enabling seamless swaps, staking, and liquidity pools that are rapidly attracting new users and wallets. Therefore, XRP Ledger’s all-time high (ATH) number of wallets shows that the network has transitioned to a utility ecosystem and DeFi powerhouse, not just a payments network. This explains why the XRP Ledger is gaining strong momentum, driven by surging demand and a sharp rise in transaction volume, signaling growing bullish sentiment and mainstream potential. Meanwhile, SWIFT is losing ground, with transaction volume recently dropping by 15%, highlighting XRP’s rising dominance in cross-border payments. XRPL’s skyrocketing transaction volume might have been one of the factors that contributed to XRP recently hitting historic highs. XRP soared to a new all-time high of $3.65, breaking past its previous $3.40 peak with this leg up being fueled by a 40% weekly surge, with the market cap surging past $200 billion. Even though XRP has retraced back to the $3.10 zone, it appears that XRPL’s high on-chain and DeFi activity will continue to create momentum for the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

The challenges of cross-border payments are not new. SWIFT has its inefficiencies. This gives Ripple an avenue to fill the gaps using efficient digital tools such as XRP.