Is XRP a Strong Long-Term Buy for 2035? Value Potential Amid Scarcity and Adoption Trends

In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, XRP has long been a polarizing asset. Critics dismiss it as a speculative relic of the 2017 boom, while proponents argue its unique design and institutional tailwinds position it for long-term value creation. As we approach 2035, the question of whether XRP is a compelling buy hinges on two critical factors: scarcity dynamics and adoption trends. Let's dissect the data to determine if XRP can deliver meaningful returns over the next decade.

Scarcity: A Supply-Side Catalyst

XRP's fixed maximum supply of 100 billion tokens creates a natural scarcity floor, but the real story lies in how that supply is being actively reduced. According to a report by The Cryptobasic, approximately 5,000 XRP tokens are burned daily through transaction fees, with the potential for this rate to surge to 15,000–20,000 tokens per day as network activity grows, as The Cryptobasic noted. If this burn rate persists, the total supply could shrink by 40% by 2035, reducing the available tokens to 60 billion, as The Cryptobasic projected.

This supply contraction is amplified by institutional actions. Ripple-backed Evernorth Holdings, for instance, moved $280 million in XRP between wallets in 2025 while increasing its holdings by 84.36 million tokens, according to The Coinrise. Meanwhile, Ripple's $500 million funding round and its control over 34 billion XRP in treasury reserves signal a strategic commitment to managing supply, as Coinfomania reported. These moves, combined with token burns, create a deflationary narrative that could drive price appreciation if demand remains stable.

But scarcity alone isn't enough. For XRP to thrive, its utility must evolve beyond speculative trading.

Adoption: From Litigation to Real-World Utility

XRP's adoption story in 2025 is defined by two pillars: institutional partnerships and transaction volume growth.

Institutional Partnerships: A New Era

The XRP ecosystem is undergoing a seismic shift as major financial institutions embrace the asset. Over 10 asset managers, including BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Grayscale, have submitted or updated XRP ETF applications with the SEC, according to Coinfomania. Franklin Templeton's XRP ETF, now listed on the DTCC, is a particularly significant milestone, as it signals regulatory progress and institutional confidence, as The Times reported.

Ripple's strategic acquisitions, such as Palisade, have further bolstered its institutional appeal. Palisade's enterprise-grade custody solutions address a critical pain point for institutions, enabling secure, scalable wallet deployment and multi-chain compatibility, as Coinfomania reported. This infrastructure not only enhances XRP's utility but also positions it as a backbone for real-world financial services.

Transaction Volume and Real-World Use Cases

While XRP's transaction volume has shown mixed results-dropping below 1 billion in some quarters-its real-world adoption is gaining traction. Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin, pegged to the U.S. dollar, now circulates over $1 billion and integrates with partners like Mastercard and Gemini, according to Coinfomania. This expansion into stablecoin liquidity management and cross-border payments underscores XRP's role as a settlement asset rather than a speculative token.

Moreover, the XRP Ledger's Real World Assets (RWA) tokenization has surged by 215% in 2025, with assets like T-Bills and diversified financial instruments driving demand, as CryptoFrontNews reported. These developments suggest that XRP's value is increasingly tied to its utility in financial infrastructure, not just its price action.

Demand Dynamics: The Price of Progress

The interplay between supply and demand is where XRP's long-term potential becomes most compelling. If the total supply shrinks by 40% by 2035, and demand remains stable, XRP could reach $4.17 per token, as The Cryptobasic projected. However, the real upside emerges if demand increases. A 50% rise in demand alongside a 40% supply reduction could push prices toward $6.25, while a doubling in demand could see prices surpass $8, as The Cryptobasic projected.

This demand growth is already materializing. Ripple's $95 billion in payment volume through Ripple Payments and its expansion into Latin America and Southeast Asia highlight growing real-world adoption, as Coinedition noted. Additionally, the launch of MiCA-compliant stablecoins (EURQ and USDQ) by Quantoz Payments BV has enhanced liquidity and institutional trust, as Coinfomania reported.

Risks and Counterarguments

Critics will point to XRP's declining transaction volume in Q3 2025, which fell below 1 billion, and its current price hovering around $2.32, as TradingNews reported. However, these metrics must be contextualized. The broader crypto market's volatility and macroeconomic headwinds have dampened short-term sentiment, but Ripple's focus on institutional infrastructure and regulatory clarity suggests a long-term play.

Moreover, emerging competitors like Remittix (RTX) are challenging XRP's dominance in cross-border payments, as TradingView noted. Yet, Ripple's first-mover advantage, combined with its treasury strength and institutional partnerships, gives it a significant edge.

The 2035 Outlook: A Scarcity-Driven Bull Case

To model XRP's potential in 2035, consider a scenario where:
1. Supply Reduction: Daily burns increase to 20,000 tokens, reducing total supply to 50 billion by 2035.
2. Demand Growth: Institutional adoption drives a 150% increase in demand due to ETF approvals and RWA expansion.

Under these assumptions, XRP's price could reach $12–$16 by 2035, as The Cryptobasic projected. Even conservative estimates, assuming a 40% supply reduction and stable demand, project a price of $4.17, as The Cryptobasic projected.

Conclusion: A Buy for the Long Haul

XRP's journey to 2035 is far from guaranteed, but the confluence of deflationary supply dynamics, institutional adoption, and real-world utility creates a compelling case for long-term value. While short-term volatility and regulatory risks persist, the asset's strategic positioning in cross-border payments, stablecoin infrastructure, and RWA tokenization suggests it could outperform many of its peers.

For investors with a 10-year horizon, XRP is not just a speculative bet-it's a bet on the future of financial infrastructure.