XRP's Strategic Pivotal Point at 20-Month EMA: A Catalyst for the Next Bull Run?

In the volatile world of cryptocurrency, technical indicators often serve as the compass for traders and investors. For XRP, the 20-month Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has emerged as a critical psychological and technical fulcrum. As the asset navigates a period of consolidation, the question looms: Can XRP's ability to hold above this pivotal $1.94 level and break through the $2.84 resistance trigger a sustained bull run?

On-Chain Metrics Signal Weakness, But Holder Confidence Rises

Recent on-chain data paints a mixed picture. Over the past week, XRP's transaction volume has plummeted below $1 billion, while daily active addresses have halved to 12,819 from over 25,000, according to Coinotag. This sharp decline underscores waning short-term demand and raises concerns about the token's utility narrative. However, a silver lining emerges in the form of growing holder numbers, which some analysts interpret as a sign of accumulating confidence amid the selloff, per Timestabloid.

The drop in activity has coincided with price weakness, as XRP tests support levels around $2.04, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) entering oversold territory, as noted by Coinotag. While this could signal a potential rebound, the broader market context-marked by Bitcoin's rising dominance-adds complexity to XRP's near-term outlook.

Technical Analysis: EMA as a Lifeline, $2.84 as the Gateway

The 20-month EMA, a key long-term trend indicator, is widely regarded as a critical support level for XRP. Though precise calculations for November 2025 remain elusive, expert analysis suggests that the EMA currently hovers near $1.94, according to the Economic Times. Holding above this level would validate the asset's resilience and signal that long-term buyers remain active.

Conversely, the $2.84 resistance represents a psychological barrier that, if breached, could unlock a new phase of bullish momentum. As of November 4, 2025, XRP trades at $2.25, struggling to reclaim the $2.50–$2.84 range that has historically defined its consolidation phase, according to the Economic Times. A sustained breakout above $2.84 would not only confirm renewed demand but also align with accumulation clusters observed near $2.52–$2.54, suggesting institutional or strategic buying interest, as reported by the Economic Times.

Chart Patterns and Strategic Implications

The interplay between XRP's price and its 20-month EMA forms a classic "support retest" pattern. If bulls can defend the $1.94 level, it would reinforce the EMA's role as a dynamic floor, potentially setting the stage for a rally toward $2.84. Conversely, a breakdown below $2.00-a level currently acting as a secondary support-could accelerate the slide toward $1.70, as noted by the Economic Times.

For patient investors, the key lies in volume. A breakout above $2.84 must be accompanied by surging transaction volume and a rebound in active addresses to signal genuine conviction. The recent 50% drop in active addresses, as reported by Coinotag, serves as a cautionary tale: without a corresponding increase in network activity, even a technical breakout may lack lasting momentum.

Position-Building Strategy for the Long-Term

Given the current setup, a position-building approach for bulls appears prudent. Accumulating XRP near the $1.94 EMA-while monitoring on-chain metrics for signs of recovery-could position investors to capitalize on a potential breakout. The $2.50–$2.54 accumulation zone offers a tactical entry point, provided volume surges to confirm buying pressure.

However, risks remain. The broader crypto market's volatility and Bitcoin's dominance could delay XRP's recovery. Investors must also remain vigilant about regulatory developments, which continue to cast a shadow over Ripple's ecosystem.

Conclusion

XRP stands at a crossroads. The 20-month EMA represents more than a technical level-it is a litmus test for the asset's long-term viability. A successful defense of $1.94 and a clean breakout above $2.84 could reignite bullish sentiment, while a breakdown would force a reevaluation of XRP's role in the crypto landscape. For now, the charts and on-chain data suggest that patience and discipline will be rewarded.