XRP's Strategic Consolidation at $2.09 and the Golden Cross Signal: A Short-to-Mid-Term Investment Setup

The XRP price action in late 2025 has painted a complex but intriguing picture for investors. After a 13% decline from its July 2025 peak of $3.40 to a year-end low of $1.88, the token has found a critical support zone around $2.09, coinciding with a technical golden cross signal and a slowdown in whale activity. This consolidation phase, combined with structural shifts in institutional demand and on-chain dynamics, suggests a potential inflection point for XRP in the short-to-mid-term horizon.

Technical Setup: Golden Cross and Channel Breakout Potential

The golden cross-a bullish technical signal where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average-emerged for XRP in late 2025 as the price stabilized near $2.09. This level has historically acted as a psychological and technical floor, with repeated bounces reinforcing its significance. According to a report by Brave New Coin, the TD Sequential indicator highlighted a potential buying opportunity near $2.09, suggesting that a breakout above $2.05–$2.07 could shift momentum in favor of bulls.

On-chain data further supports this narrative. Whale accumulation in the $1.80–$2.00 range has created a supply bottleneck, with larger wallets absorbing approximately 340 million XRP between September and November 2025. This redistribution of supply, coupled with ETF custody demand tightening liquidity, has reinforced the $2.00 floor. By early January 2026, XRP surged 25% to $2.38, breaking key resistance levels and triggering a 5D MACD golden cross, a technical signal often associated with upward trends.

Whale Activity Slowdown and Leverage Reset

The slowdown in whale activity observed in late 2025 has been a critical factor in XRP's consolidation. Data from Yahoo Finance indicates that whale-to-exchange transactions dropped significantly in previous months, reducing selling pressure and stabilizing the price. While minor net distribution was reported in late December 2025, this contrasts with earlier accumulation trends that helped reinforce the $2.00 support.

This whale behavior aligns with a broader leverage reset in the XRP market. Active addresses hit a three-month low in December 2025, signaling reduced retail participation and uncertainty about short-term direction. However, the movement of XRP from mid-sized whale addresses to larger wallets suggests a strategic redistribution of supply, potentially setting the stage for a coordinated breakout. Analysts note that if XRP remains within its $1.88–$2.10 consolidation range, the token could see limited movement in the near term, but a sustained close above $2.00 would likely retest the $2.30–$2.40 range.

Institutional Demand and ETF Inflows

The approval of XRP ETFs in November 2025 brought $1 billion in inflows within four weeks, yet the price remained flat as early investors and whales used this liquidity to exit $721 million worth of positions. This highlights a key challenge: while institutional validation has improved XRP's legitimacy, it has not yet translated into sustained price appreciation without broader utility drivers.

However, the structural impact of ETF custody demand cannot be ignored. Over 1.35 billion XRP moved into ETF custody over 60 days, creating a supply squeeze that has tightened liquidity and reinforced the $2.00 floor. By January 2026, spot XRP ETF inflows reached $1.3 billion, with institutions locking up a significant portion of the circulating supply. This dynamic, combined with whale accumulation, has created a bullish setup for XRP in the short-to-mid-term.

Investment Implications and Risks

For investors, XRP's current setup presents both opportunities and risks. The consolidation at $2.09 mirrors historical patterns where XRP followed prolonged consolidation with explosive moves, such as the 2017 surge from $0.25 to $3.40. However, the broader trend remains bearish, with the price currently near $1.96 and showing early signs of exhaustion on the daily chart.

Key risks include a breakdown below $2.00, which could trigger further declines, and macroeconomic pressures such as the Trump administration's tariff announcements, which weigh on crypto markets. Additionally, whale distribution behavior-evidenced by steady selling from late 2024 through 2025-suggests a tug-of-war between institutional optimism and large holder exits.

Conclusion

XRP's strategic consolidation at $2.09, supported by a golden cross signal and whale accumulation, positions the token for a potential breakout in the short-to-mid-term. While institutional demand and ETF inflows have created a supply squeeze, the outcome will depend on whether new demand can absorb selling pressure from whale exits. For investors, the $2.00–$2.09 range represents a critical battleground, with a sustained close above $2.00 likely to retest the $2.30–$2.40 range. However, caution is warranted given the broader bearish trend and macroeconomic headwinds.