XRP's Strategic Buy Setup at $2.09: A Confluence of TD Sequential, ETF Inflows, and Whale Accumulation

The cryptocurrency market is no stranger to volatility, but XRP's current positioning at $2.09 presents a compelling case for a short-to-mid-term bullish breakout. This setup is underpinned by a rare alignment of technical indicators, institutional demand, and on-chain activity. Let's dissect the confluence of factors that make this level a critical inflection point for XRP.

Technical Setup: TD Sequential Signals Trend Exhaustion

XRP's price action has triggered a TD Sequential "9" buy signal at $2.09, a key level identified by the Tom DeMark indicator as a potential reversal point after a 9.5% pullback from $2.20 according to analysis. This signal suggests that the downward trend may be losing momentum, with the market poised for a short-term bounce. Historically, TD Sequential counts have proven effective in identifying exhaustion points, and the current setup at $2.09 is reinforced by consolidation in the $2.00–$2.10 range.

However, technical signals alone are not enough. Price action must confirm the TD Sequential setup. A sustained close above $2.10 would validate the reversal, while a breakdown below $2.00 could extend the correction toward $1.80. The RSI and MACD indicators add nuance: while RSI hovers near 44 (far from oversold territory), the MACD line crossing above the signal line hints at emerging bullish momentum. This divergence between volume and momentum metrics underscores the need for patience-traders should wait for a clear breakout before committing.

Institutional Catalysts: ETF Inflows and Whale Accumulation

The technical narrative is amplified by robust institutional demand. XRP ETFs have attracted $844.94 million in cumulative inflows as of December 2, 2025, with $756 million added across 11 consecutive trading sessions since their launch on November 13 according to data. This inflow streak has positioned XRP as the top-performing crypto ETF trade, outpacing altcoins like Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of volume.

Whale activity further reinforces this institutional narrative. Blockchain data reveals that XRP whale wallets have accumulated 150 million XRP since November 25, despite the token's recent price decline according to reports. Notably, the number of "whale" and "shark" wallets holding at least 100 million XRP has dropped by 20.6% over the past eight weeks, signaling a centralization of holdings into fewer large wallets according to analysis. This consolidation often precedes significant price moves, as large holders reduce their exposure to retail volatility.

The interplay between ETF inflows and whale accumulation creates a unique dynamic. While ETFs provide liquidity and regulatory-compliant exposure for retail and institutional investors, whale accumulation suggests that long-term holders are betting on XRP's structural value. Together, these forces act as a stabilizing buffer against broader market sell-offs.

Price Action and Volume: Mixed Signals, but Momentum Builds

XRP's recent price action has been volatile, with the token testing critical support levels amid mixed on-chain data. As of December 5, XRP traded at $2.0376 with a weekly volume of $3.315 billion, but spot flows have been negative, recording a $1.5 million outflow on the same day. This reflects ongoing selling pressure, particularly from large holders who have dominated the market since September.

Yet, ETF inflows continue to offset this pressure. On December 5 alone, XRP ETFs added $12.84 million, pushing total AUM to $881.25 million. This liquidity injection is critical for sustaining a potential rebound. Additionally, the Fear & Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, stands at 22 (indicating extreme fear) with 75% bearish sentiment. Such contrarian indicators often precede sharp reversals, as panic-driven selling exhausts itself.

Volume analysis adds another layer of insight. While daily volumes have fluctuated, between $3.3 billion and $6.5 billion, the MACD crossover and TD Sequential signal suggest that buyers are stepping in at key levels. A decisive move above $2.10 would not only confirm the TD Sequential setup but also retest the $2.30–$2.40 mid-channel resistance, a level that could trigger broader bullish momentum.

Conclusion: A High-Probability Setup for a Bullish Breakout

XRP's positioning at $2.09 represents a strategic inflection point where technical, institutional, and on-chain signals align. The TD Sequential "9" buy signal, combined with ETF inflows and whale accumulation, creates a high-probability scenario for a short-to-mid-term breakout. However, traders must remain cautious: confirmation via sustained price action above $2.10 and a surge in volume are essential for validating the reversal.

For investors with a medium-term horizon, this setup offers a compelling risk-reward profile. If XRP holds above $2.00 and breaks through $2.10, the path to $2.40 becomes increasingly viable. Conversely, a breakdown below $2.00 would test the $1.90 support level, where another TD Sequential buy signal has flashed. Either way, the confluence of factors at $2.09 makes XRP a token to watch in the coming weeks.