XRP as a Strategic Buy Amid ETF Delays and Institutional Accumulation

The cryptocurrency market is no stranger to volatility, but XRP’s recent performance has carved out a unique narrative. After the landmark SEC settlement in August 2025, which reclassified XRP as a non-security in secondary markets, the token has faced a 16.8% price correction to $2.93 amid profit-taking by institutional investors [1]. Yet, this pullback has created a compelling entry point for long-term investors, supported by robust fundamentals, regulatory clarity, and a surge in institutional accumulation.

Regulatory Clarity: A Game Changer

The SEC’s ruling removed a decade-long legal overhang, unlocking $8.4 billion in potential ETF inflows and enabling institutional adoption [2]. This clarity has already triggered a 543% increase in XRP allocation by the New York State Common Retirement Fund and a $1.2 billion inflow into the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF (UXRP) within six months of its July 2025 launch [2]. With 11+ spot XRP ETF applications pending, the path to mainstream adoption is accelerating. Analysts project that ETF approvals by October 2025 could inject $10–$15 billion into the market, further validating XRP’s utility [1].

Institutional Confidence: A Deeper Dive

Institutional confidence is evident in the data. Whale accumulation in the $3.20–$3.30 range has surpassed $3.8 billion since July 2025, with 93% of these addresses in profit [1]. A single 320 million XRP purchase ($1 billion) in August 2025 underscores this trend, while institutions now control 10.6% of XRP’s total supply [2]. Open interest in XRP futures has surged to $8.11 billion, with CME Group’s product alone hitting $1 billion in notional value [1]. These metrics signal a durable price floor around $3.00, even as short-term volatility persists.

Undervaluation and Technical Catalysts

XRP’s undervaluation is supported by its real-world utility. The XRP Ledger processed $1.3 trillion in cross-border payments via Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) in Q2 2025, outpacing traditional systems like SWIFT with sub-5-second settlement times and $0.0002 fees [1]. Despite this, XRP trades at a discount to its 2025 price targets of $4.50–$6.00, as analysts highlight its growing adoption by 350+ financial institutions [3]. Technically, the MVRV golden cross—a historical indicator of undervaluation—suggests a potential 640% price surge if the $2.80 support holds [4].

Historical backtesting of XRP’s price behavior around support levels reveals mixed signals. Between 2022 and 2025, 32 instances of XRP rebounding above its 20-day support line were recorded. However, the average excess return over a 30-day window was -1.62%, with only 6.7% of these events resulting in positive outcomes [4]. The most significant drawdown occurred on day 28 post-event, with a peak negative impact of -4.70%. These findings suggest that traditional support-level bounces have historically offered limited upside for XRP. Yet, the current environment—marked by unprecedented institutional buying, regulatory clarity, and a maturing ecosystem—differs materially from past cycles. The $2.80 support level, therefore, must be evaluated through the lens of structural tailwinds rather than historical technical patterns alone.

Risks and the Road Ahead

While the long-term case is strong, near-term risks include a breakdown below $2.75, which could trigger a 25% decline toward $2.17 [2]. However, the broader macroeconomic tailwinds—dovish Fed policies and global trade demand—favor XRP’s use case in cross-border payments. With Ripple pursuing a U.S. bank license and expanding its RLUSD stablecoin project, the ecosystem’s institutional-grade infrastructure is maturing [1].

For investors, the current price action and institutional buying make XRP a strategic buy. The convergence of regulatory clarity, ETF momentum, and real-world utility positions XRP to outperform in a market that increasingly values tangible use cases over speculative hype.

**Source:[1] XRP's Institutional Adoption and Derivatives Surge [https://www.ainvest.com/news/xrp-institutional-adoption-derivatives-surge-era-institutional-crypto-portfolios-2508/][2] XRP's Post-SEC Catalysts and Mainstream Adoption [https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604933574][3] Ripple XRP Price Prediction for 2025-2030 [https://99bitcoins.com/price-predictions/ripple-xrp/][4] XRP Price Analysis: Consolidation Phase Ends, Explosive Rise Imminent [https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/markets-news/TheNewswire.com/34123703/xrp-price-analysis-consolidation-phase-ends-explosive-rise-imminent/]