XRP's Strategic Re-Accumulation Phase: A Case for the $3.20 Breakout in 2026

The XRP price narrative in late 2025 and early 2026 has been defined by a textbook re-accumulation phase, marked by structural on-chain shifts and technical patterns that align with classic bullish setups. As the asset consolidates above the $2.00 psychological level, a confluence of whale activity, ETF-driven demand, and evolving technical indicators suggests a high-probability breakout scenario toward $3.20 and beyond.

Technical Foundations of the Re-Accumulation

XRP's price action since late 2025 has mirrored a Wyckoff reaccumulation model, characterized by a prolonged period of sideways consolidation followed by a clean breakout. After a nearly 50% drawdown from its July 2025 peak, XRP reclaimed and held above $2.00, a critical support level that has historically acted as a floor for sustained rallies according to technical analysis. Short-term support now resides at $2.01–$2.03, while resistance is concentrated between $2.15 and $2.30 as market data shows. A successful retest of the 21-period exponential moving average (EMA) and a breakout above $2.30 could trigger a move toward $3.10–$3.30, with longer-term targets extending to $8–$9 according to technical analysis.

The $3.20–$3.60 resistance band is particularly significant, as clearing this level would confirm a sustained upward shift in market sentiment according to MEXC analysis. Analysts note that sustained strength above the 200-day EMA is a prerequisite for this scenario, with the $3.20 threshold serving as a structural ceiling that must be breached to unlock higher targets according to MEXC analysis. If XRP maintains a close above $3.20 without retesting it as support, it would signal robust buyer conviction and potentially open the path to $10 levels as Bitget reports.

On-Chain Confirmation of Structural Strength

On-chain metrics reinforce the technical narrative, with whale transactions on the XRP Ledger surging to a three-month high in late 2025. This activity, often a precursor to significant price movements, reflects capital repositioning among large holders and rising volatility. Exchange-held XRP balances have also reached multi-year lows, reducing the liquid supply available for selling and amplifying the impact of moderate buying pressure. This structural shift has been further bolstered by the introduction of spot XRP ETFs, which absorbed over $1.37 billion in net inflows by early 2026. These ETFs have acted as structural buyers during pullbacks, directly reducing circulating supply and creating a demand-driven environment according to technical analysis.

The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio, a key on-chain metric, has shifted to a neutral-positive balance, indicating that forced selling has subsided and buyers are now in control according to technical analysis. This ratio hit its highest level since late November 2025, signaling a post-spring recovery phase consistent with Wyckoff accumulation theory according to MEXC analysis. Such behavior suggests that XRP is transitioning from a period of capitulation to one of coordinated accumulation, with institutional-sized flows evident in volume spikes exceeding $23 million in one-minute intervals according to technical analysis.

Risks and Contingencies

While the bullish case is compelling, risks remain. A breakdown below the $2.00 support level could trigger a deeper correction, with analysts warning of a potential drop to $1.20 if this threshold fails according to MEXC analysis. Additionally, the market remains sensitive to macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments, which could disrupt the current trajectory according to MEXC analysis. However, the combination of on-chain signals, ETF inflows, and technical patterns suggests that XRP's re-accumulation phase is structurally sound, provided institutional adoption continues to absorb circulating supply according to MEXC analysis.

Conclusion

XRP's re-accumulation phase in late 2025 and early 2026 has been underpinned by a rare alignment of technical and on-chain indicators. The surge in whale activity, multi-year lows in exchange-held balances, and ETF-driven demand have created a foundation for a potential $3.20 breakout. If the $2.30 resistance level is cleared and the 200-day EMA is sustained, XRP could follow a classic Wyckoff markup phase toward $8–$9. While risks persist, the current structure suggests that XRP is in a phase of strategic repositioning, with the $3.20 level serving as a pivotal catalyst for the next leg of its bull run.