XRP Smart Money Are Bullish Once Again, Will the Price Echo January's 30% Rally?

XRP has seen nearly 7% growth in the past week, outperforming major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This move has drawn attention from investors and analysts amid mixed signals in the technical landscape. The token is trading near $1.48, forming a higher low on the weekly chart and showing signs of stabilization.

Institutional demand for XRP remains stable, with U.S. spot ETFs avoiding outflows for eight consecutive days. XRP ETFs have seen $1.23 billion in cumulative inflows since their launch, outperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in recent weeks.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is set to decide by February 26, 2026, on the proposed T. Rowe Price Active Crypto ETF, which includes XRP as one of its eligible assets. If approved, it would allow T. Rowe Price to allocate capital to XRP through a regulated structure.

Why Did This Happen?

Recent on-chain data shows XRP has fallen below its average holder cost basis, which has triggered loss-driven selling pressure. However, institutional demand remains resilient, preventing a sharper decline in the token's price.

The Smart Money Index has crossed above its signal line on February 15, supporting a potential 30% rally. This signal was previously successful in January 2026, indicating that coordinated buying activity may be underway.

At the same time, XRP ETF inflows have continued to rise, with recent net inflows adding $7.65 million last week. This trend suggests that investors are rotating capital from major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum to alternative blockchain ecosystems.

What Analysts Are Watching

XRP's price action shows a potential bearish head-and-shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart. A breakdown of the $1.44 neckline could trigger a 16% decline, targeting $1.12. However, a key support level at $1.42 is currently intact.

Exchange outflows and whale accumulation also suggest medium-term buying pressure. Whale addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP increased their balances by 20 million tokens, signaling growing confidence in the asset.

The SEC's decision on the T. Rowe Price ETF by February 26 will be a key event to watch. Analysts suggest that additional regulated access to XRP through ETFs could enhance liquidity and long-term price stability.

XRP remains below its 200-day moving average, indicating the longer-term trend has not yet turned bullish. A breakout above $1.46 with strong volume could signal a move toward $1.58, but a breakdown below $1.34 would increase the risk of another test at $1.12.