XRP's Sharp Price Surge: Can It Break Through $2.64 and Sustain Long-Term Momentum?

XRP's recent price action has ignited a mix of optimism and caution among investors. As the token consolidates near the critical $2.64 resistance level, technical indicators and market sentiment suggest a pivotal inflection point. This analysis explores whether XRP can break through this threshold and sustain long-term momentum, factoring in both bullish and bearish catalysts.

Technical Analysis: A Tug-of-War at Key Levels

XRP's price currently hovers around $2.40–$2.56, forming a descending wedge pattern with a key resistance at $3.02 and a projected target near its all-time high of $3.66 What To Expect From XRP in October 2025?^[1]. Short-term moving averages, including the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, remain above current price levels, reinforcing a generally bullish trend XRP Price Analysis 2025: Technical Insights & Forecast^[3]. However, the 10-day and 20-day EMAs (2.73 and 2.82, respectively) signal bearish pressure, as the price remains below these critical thresholds XRP Technical Analysis, XRP RSI, XRP Technical ...^[6].

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 27.93 indicates an oversold condition, historically suggesting a potential rebound XRP Technical Analysis, XRP RSI, XRP Technical ...^[6]. Meanwhile, the MACD (-0.08771) remains slightly negative, hinting at short-term caution but not invalidating the broader bullish setup XRP Technical Analysis, XRP RSI, XRP Technical ...^[6]. Pivot point analysis identifies $2.66 as a key resistance level under the Classic Fibonacci method, aligning with the $2.64 target mentioned in multiple reports XRP Technical Analysis, XRP RSI, XRP Technical ...^[6].

A confirmed close above $2.64 would open the path to $2.70–$2.80, with further upside contingent on reclaiming the 20-day EMA at $2.90 XRP May Continue Modest Upswing Toward $2.70 to $2.80 Amid ...^[4]. Conversely, a breakdown below $2.78 could expose XRP to the $2.64–$2.60 zone, increasing bearish risk XRP Price Prediction: Analysts Caution As Whale ...^[5].

Market Sentiment: Institutional Optimism vs. Whale Selling

While technicals paint a mixed picture, market sentiment is equally divided. Institutional inflows and ETF applications have created a favorable environment, with large investors accumulating XRP despite volatility What To Expect From XRP in October 2025?^[1]. The potential approval of XRP ETFs in October 2025 could act as a catalyst, mirroring the bullish momentum seen in September XRP Price Analysis 2025: Technical Insights & Forecast^[3].

However, whale activity remains a wildcard. Daily outflows of approximately $50 million have added selling pressure, capping upside movement XRP Price Prediction: Analysts Caution As Whale ...^[5]. In early October, 2.23 billion XRP ($5.6 billion) were offloaded, pushing the price below $2.50 XRP May Continue Modest Upswing Toward $2.70 to $2.80 Amid ...^[4]. This dumping has intensified bearish sentiment, though some analysts argue XRP may have found a short-term floor around $2.85 XRP Technical Analysis, XRP RSI, XRP Technical ...^[6].

Peter Brandt, a renowned technical analyst, has shifted to a bullish stance, citing historical triangle consolidation patterns that often precede major breakouts XRP Poised for Major Rally as Peter Brandt Turns Bullish and ...^[2]. Yet, the ADX reading of 21.5 suggests any new trend is still in its early stages, lacking the momentum for an immediate breakout XRP Poised for Major Rally as Peter Brandt Turns Bullish and ...^[2].

Historical Context and Risks

October has historically been a weak month for XRP, averaging -4.5% returns What To Expect From XRP in October 2025?^[1]. This seasonal weakness, combined with geopolitical risks like the U.S.-China trade war, creates a challenging backdrop. A sustained rally above $3.02 would be critical to validate the bullish case, as it could trigger a move toward $3.61 XRP Price Analysis 2025: Technical Insights & Forecast^[3].

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Breakout

XRP stands at a crossroads. Technically, the $2.64 resistance level is a make-or-break threshold. A successful breakout would signal institutional confidence and validate the descending wedge pattern, potentially propelling XRP toward its all-time high. However, persistent whale selling and October's historical weakness pose significant risks.

For investors, the key is to monitor both price action and macroeconomic developments. If XRP can reclaim its 1-week SMA of $2.83 and secure ETF approvals, the long-term bullish case strengthens. Until then, caution remains warranted.