XRP's Resilience in a Downtrend Market: Fundamental and On-Chain Indicators Suggest Undervaluation and Long-Term Stability

In a crypto market defined by volatility and cyclical downturns, XRP-the native token of Ripple's decentralized payment protocol-has shown remarkable resilience. Despite broader market headwinds, XRP's price has held above $2.00 in 2025, outperforming many of its peers. This durability is not accidental. A closer look at fundamental and on-chain metrics reveals a compelling case for undervaluation and long-term stability, driven by growing institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and robust network activity.

Fundamental Indicators: A Case for Undervaluation

XRP's Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio has dropped to 108.56, a level historically associated with undervaluation. This metric compares a cryptocurrency's market capitalization to its transaction volume, with lower values suggesting stronger utility relative to price, according to an Analytics Insight analysis. For context, Bitcoin's NVT typically ranges between 200–400, while Ethereum's hovers around 150–300. XRP's current ratio implies its transactional utility is outpacing its valuation, a bullish divergence that often precedes price appreciation.

Regulatory developments have further bolstered XRP's fundamentals. A 2025 U.S. court ruling reclassified XRP as a commodity, not a security, according to a CCN analysis. This shift has unlocked institutional demand, with major asset managers accelerating XRP ETF product development. The token's fixed supply of 100 billion XRP-55 billion of which are in escrow to ensure a steady, predictable release-also enhances its appeal as an energy-efficient, transparent asset, according to The Currency Analytics report.

On-Chain Activity: Whale Accumulation and Network Growth

On-chain data paints a picture of growing confidence. In Q3 2025, large holders accumulated 310 million XRP, pushing total whale holdings to 8.11 billion, according to The Currency Analytics report. This accumulation, despite slower retail adoption, signals institutional positioning. Meanwhile, XRP's funding rates-a measure of leveraged bullish sentiment-reached 0.07% in August 2025, surpassing Ethereum's 0.05%, as reported by the same Currency Analytics piece. Higher funding rates indicate stronger demand for long positions, a trend often preceding price breakouts.

Network activity has also surged. The XRP Ledger processed 70 million transactions monthly in July 2025, with decentralized exchange (DEX) volume rising 21% month-over-month, driven by the growth of RLUSD, a USD-pegged stablecoin, per the Currency Analytics report. This surge in utility underscores XRP's role as a bridge for cross-border payments and DeFi liquidity.

Technical Momentum: A Breakout on the Horizon?

Technically, XRP is consolidating within a descending channel, but key indicators suggest a potential reversal. The Awesome Oscillator (AO), a momentum indicator, flipped from negative to positive in late September 2025, according to Analytics Insight, signaling strengthening buyer pressure. Analysts project a breakout above $2.30 could trigger a rally toward $2.61–$2.72, with longer-term targets of $3.65–$4.50 by 2025 and $5–$10 by 2030, as outlined in the CCN analysis.

The Road Ahead: Stability in a Downtrend

XRP's resilience in a downtrend market stems from its unique value proposition: a fast, low-cost solution for global payments, underpinned by regulatory clarity and growing institutional demand. While short-term volatility remains a risk, the confluence of undervalued fundamentals, whale accumulation, and improving technical momentum suggests XRP is poised for a breakout. For investors, this represents an opportunity to capitalize on a token that's not just surviving the downturn but thriving within it.