XRP's Repeating Wedge Pattern: Is History Repeating Itself in 2024–2025?

In the world of cryptocurrency, patterns often tell stories. For XRP, the narrative unfolding in 2024–2025 feels eerily familiar. The token is currently forming a falling wedge pattern above its $2.60–$2.70 support zone, a classic bullish setup that traders are watching closely for a breakout above $2.90–$3.00 according to analysis. If history is any guide-and given XRP's penchant for cyclical repetition-this could be the prelude to a multi-year rally.

The Wedge That Keeps on Giving

XRP's price chart is a masterclass in technical repetition. From 2017 to 2023, the asset has repeatedly formed wedge patterns, each time followed by sharp breakouts. For instance, in early 2025, a falling wedge breakout was predicted to push XRP toward a new all-time high of $4, an 81% jump from recent lows. Similarly, a May 2025 breakout from a multi-month wedge projected a 40% move to $3.45. These aren't isolated events. Analysts have noted that XRP's 2017 bull run, which saw a 35,000% surge to $3.84, was preceded by a symmetrical triangle breakout-a pattern now reemerging in 2025.

The current wedge is particularly compelling. It's forming within a multi-year consolidation phase that began in 2021, with Fibonacci extensions pointing to ambitious targets. A clean break above $2.90–$3.00 could trigger a move toward $3.20, $3.60, and even $4.77. More aggressive models, like those from Chart Nerd, suggest a blow-off top at $27.08 if the bullish momentum holds.

Fibonacci: The Universal Language of XRP

Fibonacci levels have long been XRP's secret sauce. In 2017, the token hit both the 1.272 and 1.618 extension levels before retracing. Now, the same logic applies. A breakout above $3.80 could trigger a 27% rally based on a falling wedge above the 50-day EMA. Meanwhile, the 1.618 extension level-historically a key target in prior cycles-is now at $27.23.

The consistency of these patterns is staggering. Analysts like Matt Hughes have highlighted Fibonacci-driven targets at $8.30, $13.39, and $26.63, while others project more modest but still bullish levels at $4.17 and $4.77. The overlap between these projections isn't a coincidence-it's a sign that XRP's price action is following a well-defined, cyclical script.

Cyclical Rhythms: 12–13 Months of Chaos and Clarity

XRP's price cycles exhibit a predictable 12–13 month rhythm. The 2017–2018 bull run lasted exactly 12 months, followed by a 26-month bear market. This pattern has repeated in subsequent cycles, with XRP's 2023–2025 action mirroring the same cadence. For example, the 2021 rebound-spurred by a retest of the 21-day EMA-hit a 414% gain, and a similar retest in June 2025 could signal another surge.

This cyclical behavior isn't just theoretical. AI-driven analyses have identified overlapping patterns like symmetrical triangles, bull flags, and inverse head and shoulders, all of which suggest a high probability of a major breakout around mid-September 2025. The bull flag pattern, in particular, implies a potential surge to $8–$15 if volume and institutional activity confirm the breakout.

Whale Accumulation and On-Chain Signals

While technical patterns are compelling, on-chain data adds another layer of conviction. Whale accumulation has been robust, with over $560 million in inflows in October 2025. This aligns with historical trends where large holders begin accumulating during consolidation phases, signaling confidence in a near-term breakout.

Moreover, XRP's deflationary mechanism-burning 0.00001 XRP per transaction-creates long-term scarcity. Combined with potential supply tightening from projects like Flare Networks, this could amplify price appreciation during periods of increased network usage.

The Risks: When History Doesn't Repeat

Of course, not all patterns end in triumph. A breakdown below $2.60–$2.70 could shift the bias bearish, with potential downside targets at $2.20 and $2.00. While the RSI reading of 61.45 on the three-day chart supports the bullish case, traders must remain vigilant for signs of weakness, such as diverging volume or failed retests of key support levels.

Conclusion: A Playbook for the Long-Term Investor

XRP's repeating wedge pattern and Fibonacci-driven breakouts suggest a compelling case for long-term investors. The asset's cyclical behavior, reinforced by historical parallels and on-chain accumulation, points to a potential multi-year rally. While risks exist, the alignment of technical, historical, and fundamental factors makes this one of the most intriguing setups in crypto.

As the market approaches critical levels in late 2025, the question isn't just whether history is repeating-it's whether investors are ready to capitalize on the next chapter.