XRP's Recurring Bullish Cycle: Is History Repeating for a $9.90 Breakout?

The cryptocurrency market has long been fascinated by the cyclical nature of digital assets, where patterns from past bull runs often echo in future price action. XRP, the native token of Ripple's blockchain network, is now drawing attention for its striking resemblance to historical bullish cycles, particularly the 2014–2018 and 2017 surges. With technical analysts and on-chain metrics suggesting a potential $9.90 price target-a 309% increase from its current level of $2.45-the question looms: Is XRP poised to repeat history?

Historical Parallels and Technical Foundations

XRP's price trajectory has been marked by distinct accumulation phases followed by explosive rallies. During the 2014–2018 bull cycle, XRP surged from a low of $0.0028 to a peak of $3.31, driven by growing institutional adoption and regulatory clarity, according to a TimeStabloid piece. The current cycle mirrors this pattern, with XRP forming higher lows and consolidating within a descending wedge-a classic technical indicator of a potential bullish reversal, according to a Coinotag report.

Technical analyst Javon Marks has highlighted recurring price structures in XRP's long-term chart, noting that the asset is now in a phase akin to its 2017 breakout. At that time, XRP transitioned from $0.005 to over $3, fueled by a combination of Fibonacci retracement levels and sustained buyer dominance, according to a CryptoFront analysis. Today, similar dynamics are at play. The $2.5–$2.77 resistance zone, if breached, could trigger a move toward $3.40 and $4.804, with $9.90 aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, as highlighted by Coinotag's analysis.

On-Chain Metrics and Institutional Momentum

Beyond chart patterns, on-chain data reinforces the bullish case. As of October 2025, XRP boasts 483,460 active addresses and a daily trading volume of $3.38 billion, signaling robust market participation, per Coinotag. The launch of the REX-Osprey XRP ETF and CME Group's XRP options have further catalyzed institutional interest, with the ETF surpassing $100 million in assets under management, Coinotag reported. These developments mirror the infrastructure-driven momentum that preceded XRP's 2017 rally.

DustyBC, another prominent analyst, has identified a descending wedge pattern that could see XRP break out to $3.60 in the near term, as noted in TimeStabloid. This aligns with broader market sentiment, as XRP's 1.65% 24-hour price increase and rising long-term holder accumulation suggest a shift in market psychology from caution to optimism, according to CryptoFront News.

Risks and Counterarguments

While the technical and on-chain indicators are compelling, skeptics caution against overreliance on historical parallels. XRP's current environment differs from past cycles in key ways, including evolving regulatory scrutiny and competition from newer blockchain protocols. A breakdown below the $2.5 support level could trigger a retest of the $2.10–$2.20 range, where previous consolidation occurred, as Coinotag notes. Additionally, macroeconomic factors such as interest rate policies and broader crypto market sentiment could influence XRP's trajectory.

Conclusion: A Case for Strategic Positioning

For investors, the convergence of technical patterns, Fibonacci alignment, and institutional adoption presents a compelling case for XRP's potential $9.90 breakout. However, this scenario hinges on sustained buyer participation and a favorable regulatory environment. Those with a long-term horizon may find value in monitoring key resistance levels and on-chain metrics for confirmation of a sustained bullish trend.

As history often repeats itself in markets, XRP's current chart setup offers a tantalizing glimpse into what could be another chapter in its storied bull cycle.