Will XRP Reclaim $2? Santiment's Latest MVRV Data Explained

XRP has shown signs of consolidation within a defined price range of $1.28 to $1.62, with buyers remaining active despite market uncertainty. Price stability near resistance suggests accumulation, and a confirmed breakout could lead to an expansion toward $1.88–$2.22. The reduced risk of aggressive downside moves has been supported by normalized metrics like MVRV.

Recent on-chain activity indicates renewed demand and reduced profit-taking pressure. Active addresses have spiked, signaling increased user participation. Additionally, the thinning liquidity at $1.62 suggests a potential breakout scenario if buyers continue to push higher.

The XRP network has recorded a significant trading volume of $3.86B in 24 hours, with major exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, and Upbit showing substantial activity. This surge is paired with a growth in wallet count, now surpassing 8.1 million, primarily driven by retail users.

Can XRP Overcome Key Resistance Levels?

XRP faces immediate technical challenges in breaking above $1.4 due to a large sell wall of 1.24 billion tokens. A head-and-shoulders pattern is currently forming with a neckline at $1.26. The 20-day and 50-day EMAs at $1.35 and $1.42 represent critical resistance levels.

A close above $1.35 is needed to confirm short-term bullish momentum. However, buying pressure has weakened, with exchange buying halved since late March, complicating efforts to absorb the supply wall. A failure to reclaim these EMAs could lead to a breakdown below $1.26, potentially dropping XRP to $1.03.

What Do Exchange Balances Indicate About XRP?

XRP exchange balances have decreased by 16.08% since February 2025, suggesting a trend of asset accumulation or migration to private storage. The top ten exchanges hold over 94% of the supply, indicating high liquidity concentration.

Recent inflows and outflows across exchanges remain balanced, but the broader trend shows a sustained reduction in available supply. Over the past 24 hours, there was a net inflow of 2.16 million XRP, with 13 exchanges gaining and 20 losing balances.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Traders and analysts are closely monitoring key price levels such as $1.35, $1.40, and $1.48. A confirmed close above $1.35 could signal short-term strength, while a breakdown below $1.26 would heighten bearish concerns.

The $1.45–$1.47 range holds 1.24 billion XRP and represents a major resistance area. If XRP can overcome this sell wall, it may transition into a more supportive demand environment. However, continued weakening in buying pressure complicates this scenario.

Market observers remain cautious due to ongoing daily realized losses ranging from $20M to $110M since late 2025. Short-term uncertainty persists, but growing retail adoption and on-chain activity offer potential for future price movement.