Why XRP's Quiet Institutional Accumulation Signals a Major Rerating in 2026

In the world of institutional-driven markets, price action often lags behind positioning. XRP, the native token of the XRP Ledger, has quietly become a focal point for institutional capital in 2025, despite a bearish retail narrative. This divergence between on-chain fundamentals and price performance suggests a potential rerating in 2026, driven by structural adoption, regulatory clarity, and infrastructure upgrades.

On-Chain Signals: A Tale of Resilience and Accumulation

XRP's 2025 price decline of 13% to $1.88 masked a surge in real-world utility. On-chain data reveals declining exchange reserves, a sign of reduced sell-side pressure, and elevated settlement activity for cross-border transactions, indicating growing institutional use cases. A critical divergence emerged in November 2025: while active addresses dropped to 19,400-the lowest of the year-price held firm above $2.20. This pattern historically signals off-chain accumulation via OTC desks and custodial services, a precursor to market consolidation and eventual breakouts.

Institutional Infrastructure: Ripple's Strategic Moves

Ripple's acquisition of Hidden Road to form Ripple Prime, the first crypto-owned global prime brokerage, has been a game-changer. This move, alongside the launch of RLUSD and expanded custody solutions, has attracted institutional capital by addressing liquidity and compliance gaps. Ripple's CEO has projected capturing 14% of SWIFT's volume within five years, a claim backed by the XRP Ledger's daily processing of 1.5 million transactions at low fees.

ETF Inflows and Regulatory Clarity: A New Era

The August 2025 resolution of the SEC case brought regulatory clarity, unlocking XRP trading on U.S. exchanges and spurring nine asset managers to file spot XRP ETF applications. Analysts estimate these ETFs could attract $5–7 billion in inflows by 2026, mirroring Bitcoin's ETF-driven rally. The Canary XRP ETF, launched in November 2025, recorded $58 million in day-one volume, signaling institutional confidence. Despite bearish technical indicators, these ETFs have posted 18 consecutive days of positive closes, highlighting a disconnect between short-term sentiment and long-term positioning.

OTC Accumulation: Depleting Supply, Building Momentum

OTC markets have seen explosive activity, with XRP spot inflows surging 2,490% in an eight-hour window in November 2025. Institutional demand has drained OTC supply to 1–2 billion XRP, creating scarcity and upward pressure. This trend mirrors historical patterns: in mid-2025, ETF inflows and OTC accumulation drove XRP's price from $2.50 to $2.90, a 16% rally. With only a fraction of OTC supply remaining, further price surges are likely as institutions continue to accumulate.

Historical Precedents: Positioning vs. Price

XRP's 2025 price surge above $3.60 was fueled by institutional inflows and regulatory developments, a pattern that could repeat in 2026. Technical analysis suggests a potential breakout to $6.19 if key resistance levels like $1.98 are breached. The NVT ratio's decline-a metric comparing network value to transaction volume-further underscores XRP's utility-driven valuation over speculation.

Conclusion: A 2026 Rerating is Inevitable

While macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical tensions have dampened risk appetite, XRP's institutional positioning tells a different story. The convergence of on-chain resilience, ETF inflows, OTC scarcity, and regulatory tailwinds positions XRP as a unique asset poised for a 2026 rerating. As institutions continue to build infrastructure and accumulate XRP off-chain, the market is setting up for a correction in price sentiment-a correction that will likely manifest as a sharp upward move when retail liquidity returns.