XRP's Price Stalls as Ledger Flow Reaches January 2025 Peak Levels

The core market signal is clear: on-chain activity is booming while price action is broken. XRP's ledger volume hit a record $617.19 billion in 2025, a 138% surge from the prior year. This flow is now re-testing its one-year range, with velocity climbing back to the highest levels seen since January 2025. Yet the price has failed to follow. Last week, XRP broke decisively below its long-term falling channel, a key technical breakdown that sent the token toward $1.11 and tested critical support near $0.93.

This divergence creates a high-risk setup. Record transaction volume and velocity indicate strong underlying network utilization and asset turnover. The ledger processed this massive flow for just $2 million in fees, highlighting its cost efficiency. However, price has been unable to stabilize above the channel's former support. The recent bounce toward $1.30 has not changed the bearish structure, leaving the token vulnerable to further downside if selling pressure persists.

The bottom line is a classic stall. Strong on-chain fundamentals provide a base, but they are being overwhelmed by unresolved technical weakness and selling pressure. Historical patterns show that breakdowns from falling channels often precede long consolidation phases, not instant recoveries. For price to finally respond to this flow, it must first slow its decline and reclaim key short-term levels. Until then, the contradiction will likely persist.

The Flow Drivers: ETFs, Stablecoins, and Whale Activity

The record ledger flow is being fueled by three distinct institutional and high-value liquidity channels. First, U.S. spot XRP ETFs launched in November 2025 and reached $1 billion in AUM in less than four weeks, the fastest uptake for any spot crypto ETF since Ethereum. This offering has dramatically expanded regulated access for U.S. investors. Second, Ripple's native stablecoin, RLUSD, closed 2025 with a $235 million market cap on the XRPL, up 164% quarter-over-quarter, providing a key on-ramp for institutional and retail capital within the ecosystem.

Third, during the recent price dip, the ledger saw a surge in high-value activity. In a single eight-hour period, XRP Ledger recorded a four-month high of whale transactions over $100,000 and a six-month high of unique addresses. This indicates significant capital movement and network participation, often a precursor to price reversals. Yet, despite these active flows, price remains stalled.

The disconnect suggests these institutional and whale flows are being absorbed by the existing bearish structure. The ETF AUM and stablecoin growth represent new capital entering the network, but it is not yet translating to buying pressure on exchanges. Similarly, the whale activity may reflect portfolio rebalancing or arbitrage rather than a coordinated bullish move. For price to finally respond, this on-chain liquidity needs to shift from internal network activity to visible accumulation on trading platforms, a transition that has not yet occurred.

Catalysts and Risks: When Flow Meets Price

The immediate trigger for a price recovery is clear: XRP must reclaim its broken falling channel and defend the $1.30 area. This level is critical technical support; holding it would signal that the recent breakdown may be a temporary pause rather than the start of a deeper decline. The current bounce toward $1.30 offers a chance to reset, but the broader structure remains weak. Historical patterns show that breakdowns from such channels often lead to long consolidation phases, not instant reversals. For the flow to finally translate to price, this defensive hold is the necessary first step.

The primary risk is that selling pressure from exchange reserves continues unabated. Despite the record ledger activity, XRP reserves on major platforms like Binance and Upbit have sharply increased as investors move coins onto exchanges. This buildup creates a direct overhang, as these coins are available for immediate sale. The recent price drop below $1.9 confirms this selling pressure is active. Until these exchange flows slow and reserves stabilize, they will act as a persistent drag on price, absorbing any new on-chain liquidity before it can drive accumulation.

A potential catalyst on the horizon is the February launch of Permissioned Domains (XLS-80). This feature, designed to allow institutions to require specific credentials like KYC for access, could further institutionalize the ledger. If successful, it would validate Ripple's push for regulated adoption and could attract new, compliant capital. However, its impact is uncertain and likely medium-term. In the near term, the balance hinges on the immediate battle between exchange selling and the technical defense of $1.30. The flow is strong, but price will only follow if the bearish structure breaks.