Why XRP Price Is Stalling Despite $1.5B ETF Inflows

• AI models analyzing XRP's historical crash patterns estimate a 60-65% probability that the current bear market bottomed in late June 2026.
• US-listed XRP spot ETFs have recorded $1.5 billion in cumulative net inflows, though total net assets stand at $988.7 million due to valuation losses.
• The XRP Ledger added nearly 490,000 new accounts in the first half of 2026, driven by the expansion of Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin.
• Monthly ETF creation activity has cooled sharply, dropping from $131 million in May to $12.3 million in July as sentiment weakens.
• Regulatory catalysts, specifically the CLARITY Act, remain a critical variable for the next major leg of XRP ETF demand and price recovery.

XRP is currently navigating a complex phase where strong on-chain fundamentals and institutional interest are clashing with severe market valuation losses and regulatory uncertainty. Despite the token trading near $1.07, approximately 71% below its July 2025 peak, the underlying infrastructure is expanding at a record pace. The disconnect between the surging utility of the XRP Ledger and the depressed price of the asset itself presents a unique scenario for investors evaluating whether this is a temporary valuation gap or a structural market shift.

Is the XRP Price Bear Market Over?

Investors have been closely monitoring XRP's price action as it struggles to reclaim the $1.20 resistance level, with multiple data points suggesting the worst of the downtrend may have passed. Two prominent AI models, ChatGPT and Claude, analyzed XRP's price history since 2013 to determine the potential end of its current crash. ChatGPT cites a 14-month average bear market duration and consistent Q3 seasonal recovery patterns, assigning 65% probability the crash ends by mid-August. Claude identified a 60% probability that the bottom occurred on June 26 at $1.009, noting progressively shallower crashes and early-summer bottoms in XRP's history .

These models leave a 35-40% chance of a further decline to the $0.85-$0.98 range, with September's CLARITY Act vote and the Federal Reserve rate decision acting as key catalysts . Historically, XRP has experienced four major crashes, including losses of over 90% in 2014 and 2018, but has recovered from each . However, the current downturn sees XRP trading approximately 70% below its July 2025 peak, testing the patience of long-term holders. Prominent analysts including ChartNerd, CasiTrades, and Dark Defender predict final corrective low below $1 in late 2026 before a potential recovery.

ChartNerd cites specific technical signals supporting this view: a weekly EMA death cross formed in January 2026, a rejection at the 20-week EMA in May, and failures to reclaim resistance at $1.29 and $1.60 . He argues that bears remain in control and any immediate bounce is likely a relief rally before a Q4 drop, with downside targets extending to $0.70 . CasiTrades identifies $0.87 as the primary downside target with $0.93 as an alternative, while Dark Defender’s Elliott Wave analysis places the endpoint of the fifth correction wave near $0.93 .

Why Do XRP ETF Inflows Diverge From Price?

One of the most significant developments in the XRP ecosystem is the performance of US-listed spot ETFs, which have reached a milestone of $1.5 billion in cumulative net inflows, yet total net assets remain at $988.7 million. The $511 million gap reflects valuation losses rather than investor redemptions, as fund holdings have continued to increase despite the token's price decline . At the time of the snapshot, XRP traded near $1.07, approximately 71% below its July 2025 high .

Monthly creation activity has contracted significantly, falling from $131 million in May to $59 million in June and $12.3 million in July . Bitwise leads with roughly $500 million in inflows, followed by Canary Capital ($467 million) and Franklin Templeton ($422.4 million) . Base-case modeling suggests cumulative inflows may reach only $1.55 billion by Q4, though a legislative breakthrough via the CLARITY Act could lift monthly creations above $100 million .

The funds collectively hold about 978.9 million XRP, less than 1% of the 100 billion maximum supply . Senate action on the act was delayed, and supporters may need seven to nine additional Democratic votes before the August 7 recess, making the regulatory path a central variable for the next leg of XRP ETF demand . This divergence between strong inflow history and cooling current demand highlights the market's wait for a definitive regulatory catalyst to justify aggressive accumulation at current price levels.

How Is the XRP Ledger Growing Amidst the Downturn?

While the market price stagnates, the XRP Ledger is recording significant on-chain growth with nearly 490,000 new accounts in H1 2026, driven by the expansion of Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin. The stablecoin reached approximately $873 million in circulating supply on the network, and because every RLUSD transaction settles in XRP fees, this expansion creates consistent, recurring demand for XRP as a utility token . Transaction volume grew over 35% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, while XRP held on exchanges dropped to a seven-year low of 2.748 billion tokens, suggesting holders are moving assets to self-custody .

This structural demand contrasts sharply with the recent ETF inflow slowdown. Although $1.5 billion in cumulative spot ETF inflows exists, XRP's price remains down 41% year-to-date, indicating a disconnect between network activity and market valuation . This suggests that either selling pressure is offsetting ETF inflows, or the market has not yet priced in the reduced float and structural fee demand generated by RLUSD's scale .

Furthermore, Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD is expanding on Ethereum and the XRP Ledger, with recent supply movements indicating treasury-style rebalancing toward venues with stronger exchange demand, such as Korean exchanges Upbit and Bithumb . This cross-chain and cross-venue expansion reinforces the fundamental utility of the XRP Ledger, even as short-term traders focus on technical resistance levels and macroeconomic headwinds. The steady accumulation of network users and transaction volume provides a floor of organic demand that could support a recovery once regulatory clarity is achieved.

What Are the Key Risks and Catalysts for XRP?

The primary risk for XRP in the near term remains regulatory ambiguity, specifically the status of the CLARITY Act in the US Senate. XRP climbed above $1.16 on July 21 after President Trump agreed to an ethics provision blocking the CLARITY Act, but the bill still has no floor vote. Traders on Polymarket now price the bill's chances of becoming law this year near 30%, down from 82% in February . Additionally, the Federal Reserve held rates on July 29, with three officials voting to raise them instead, removing expected rate cuts from the table .

On-chain data shows 830 million XRP concentrated near $1 as support, with almost no buyers between $1 and $0.80 . XRP's two-week Gaussian channel, which has caught every major bottom since 2017, points to a worst-case floor between $0.70 and $0.90 if the bill does not pass . A Senate floor date for the CLARITY Act is the main event that could change the outlook, but the bill looks shelved until at least September .

Technically, XRP traded at $1.0637, remaining below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs. All four moving averages are stacked in bearish order, favoring sellers following XRP’s decline from nearly $1.50 in May . The Relative Strength Index dropped to 41.06, showing bearish momentum remains intact but has not yet entered oversold territory . Immediate support sits near the session low at $1.04, with the $1.00–$1.02 zone being the key area to watch .

For bulls, the first hurdle is the 20-day EMA near $1.10, with a move above $1.13 needed to reclaim the 50-day EMA . ETF inflows provide a constructive long-term signal, but recent daily purchases are too small to change the short-term trend without an improvement in broader crypto market sentiment . The convergence of fundamental network growth, institutional ETF accumulation, and the looming regulatory verdict creates a high-conviction, high-volatility environment for XRP investors in the coming months.