XRP Price Rally Fizzles as Ripple Considers SEC Settlement

XRP price experienced a brief rally before retreating to $2.47 at the time of reporting. This fluctuation followed reports that Ripple was considering dropping its appeal against the SEC and paying a fine of $50 million, significantly lower than the $125 million imposed by Judge Analisa Torres the previous year.

Despite recent gains and positive developments in the SEC vs. Ripple case, several indicators suggest that the XRP bull run may be coming to an end.

On-chain metrics, technical indicators, and derivatives market data provide three key reasons why the XRP bull run may be over. The weekly XRP price chart indicates that Ripple has been in a consolidation phase between $2.14 and $2.94 since December 2024, with no significant breakouts. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been trending downward, forming a series of lower highs, which suggests diminishing buying pressure. Additionally, the red MACD histogram bars are lengthening, indicating a shift in momentum and a bearish outlook for XRP.

This weak buying pressure suggests a lack of trader greed and reduced optimism about XRP resuming its previous bull run. If Ripple falls below this consolidation zone, it could trigger a drop below the $1 psychological level.

Social volumes also indicate that the XRP bull run may be over. Data from Santiment shows spikes in social volumes during bullish news, suggesting that traders are buying into the fear of missing out (FOMO) to book quick profits. If social volumes continue to fluctuate without sustained growth, it suggests that XRP will face sideways price movements until there is long-term buying pressure. For XRP to maintain a bullish trajectory, buyers need to hold their assets in anticipation of further gains, rather than just reacting to short-term news.

The market may have already priced in the end of the Ripple case. The Ripple community has been anticipating the official conclusion of the SEC case and its potential impact on XRP price. However, analysts now believe that the market has already factored in the end of the lawsuit. Popular analyst Dom noted that the market barely reacted to Ripple’s reduced settlement news, stating, “The lawsuit ‘news’ is now officially over and non-reactive. As seen with flows, the market barely cared for a few minutes on today’s news.” Another analyst, mnltrades, questioned what XRP holders could look forward to now that the case has concluded.

The SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit has been a major catalyst for price growth over the past five years. With the case now concluded, XRP holders may need to wait for other bullish news, such as the approval of a spot XRP ETF or a Ripple IPO filing, to kickstart another bull run.

In summary, the XRP price bull run appears to be over. The altcoin is experiencing brief spikes in social volumes, indicating that traders are only buying for short-term gains and not holding for the long term. The bearish technical outlook and speculation that the SEC case may be priced in could also hinder gains.