XRP Price Prediction: Key $1.30–$1.05 Fib Zone Decides Next Move

XRP has shown a notable divergence from Bitcoin and Ethereum in recent weeks, with bullish sentiment rising despite the broader bearish trend. The token's bullish-to-bearish ratio reached 2.35, a five-week high, driven by growing institutional adoption and inflows into XRP ETFs. SBI Holdings launched a $65 million on-chain bond that pays in XRP, and Aviva Investors plans to tokenize funds on the XRP Ledger.

XRP's price has fallen 30% in February, reaching $1.40, despite a $1.3 billion inflow into XRP investment products since late 2025. This inflow contrasts with outflows in Bitcoin and Ethereum products, suggesting that institutional investors see XRP's decline as an accumulation opportunity.

The $1.30–$1.05 Fibonacci zone is a key level for XRP, with traders closely monitoring whether it can hold as support for a recovery. If XRP breaks below $1.25, it could test the $1.02 level, and a break below $1.00 could lead to further declines toward $0.80–$0.70. Technical indicators show sustained bearish momentum, with volume surging above average after a breakdown below $1.36.

Why Did This Happen?

XRP's recent price drop reflects ongoing bearish pressure amid a technical breakdown below $1.36. This level has now reclassified as resistance on any future rallies. The token's failure to hold above $1.36 has intensified selling pressure, with a move toward $1.20–$1.22 now more likely. Institutional investors, however, continue to accumulate, with over $1.3 billion flowing into XRP investment products since late 2025.

The token is currently compressed within a multi-month descending channel, with bearish forces dominating since the $3.00 high in 2025. Bollinger bands are narrowing near structural support, which could precede a directional breakout. A monthly close above $1.50 would be necessary to maintain bullish momentum, but the broader trend remains bearish until the $1.90 upper channel boundary is cleared.

What Analysts Are Watching

Analyst CasiTrades warns that XRP's breakdown below a key trendline and the loss of a prior B-wave low have shifted the market structure to bearish. This indicates that sellers are gaining control, increasing the likelihood of continued downward pressure. $1.40 is a critical short-term resistance level, and as long as XRP remains below this level, the short-term outlook is expected to remain bearish.

XRP is also forming a Gartley harmonic pattern, suggesting a potential bullish reversal if key technical levels are respected. For the pattern to remain valid, XRP must hold above the high-timeframe support near $1.20. A successful completion of leg C could trigger a move toward leg D, the final phase of the harmonic formation. If the pattern matures, it could lead to a rally toward a projected 60% increase from current levels.

Whale inflows to Binance have added sell-side pressure, increasing the likelihood of a downward trend. CryptoQuant data show more than 31 million XRP, worth nearly $45 million, were moved to Binance on Feb. 21 by large holders. This activity has created notable sell-side pressure, with an analyst highlighting support around $1.22 and warning that a break below $1.20 could open further declines toward $1.11, $1, and possibly $0.80 in the coming weeks.

Potential Market Implications

The $1.30–$1.05 Fibonacci zone is a critical decision point for XRP, with traders monitoring whether it can form a macro low above this range. A sustained move below $1.25 increases the risk of a move toward $1.02, and a break below $1.00 would shift focus to deeper retracement targets at $0.80 and $0.70. The market remains fragile with elevated selling volumes and bearish momentum indicators.

If XRP can stabilize above $1.30 and form a recovery, it could signal a shift in market psychology and attract further institutional interest. However, continued weakness below this level may reinforce the bearish trend, with potential implications for broader market sentiment in the XRP ecosystem.