XRP Price at Pivot Point: Can $2.95 Support Catalyze a Multi-Dollar Bull Run?

XRP, the digital asset underpinning Ripple's blockchain, has reached a pivotal juncture. Traders and analysts are fixated on the $2.95 support level, a price floor that could either ignite a multi-dollar rally or signal further consolidation. With technical indicators, institutional absorption metrics, and Fibonacci-driven analysis converging, the stage is set for a decisive move. Let's dissect the forces at play.

Technical Momentum: A Bearish Consolidation or a Pre-Breakout Setup?

XRP's price action has been confined within a symmetrical triangle pattern since July 2025, defined by lower highs and higher lows. This pattern, a classic precursor to a breakout, suggests market indecision but also hints at latent momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently hovers near 40, indicating cautious buying pressure rather than a bearish breakdown. While not in oversold territory, the RSI's proximity to 32—a level often associated with short-term rebounds—suggests buyers are testing the $2.95 level for strength.

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator has shown a “strong buy” signal in the past week, aligning with a bullish crossover of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The 50-day MA at $3.10 sits above the 200-day MA at $2.45, forming a “golden cross” that historically signals upward momentum. However, the price must close above $3.05 to validate this bullish setup.

Institutional Absorption: Whales Accumulate, Shorts Capitulate

On-chain data reveals a critical shift in investor behavior. Long-term holders (LTHs) have maintained strong positions despite a 20% drawdown from July's peak, with Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) remaining below euphoric levels. This suggests the market is in a consolidation phase rather than a cycle peak. Meanwhile, short-term holders (STHs) are showing signs of capitulation, with many underwater or selling near breakeven—a pattern often preceding stronger rallies.

Institutional absorption has accelerated, with $17.6 million in net inflows reported in early August. Large wallets have accumulated 1.2 billion XRP ($3.8 billion value) over 90 days, signaling confidence in XRP's utility-driven narrative. Ripple's strategic supply management—unlocking 1 billion XRP while relocking 700 million—has further stabilized the market, mitigating volatility seen in previous cycles.

The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, a metric comparing market cap to transaction volume, is at a five-month low. This undervaluation relative to XRP's transactional utility (daily active addresses at 295K) suggests the asset is primed for a rebound. Additionally, the MVRV Z-Score at 2.0 indicates XRP is not yet overvalued, leaving room for upward movement before widespread profit-taking kicks in.

Fibonacci-Driven Breakout Potential: Key Levels to Watch

Fibonacci retracement levels derived from XRP's 2025 swing high ($3.60) and low ($2.90) provide critical price targets. The 61.8% retracement level at $3.1674 is a golden ratio threshold where a successful retest could validate the bullish case. A breakout above $3.35—the 38.2% retracement level—would target $3.59, $4.63, and ultimately $5.67 via Fibonacci extensions.

The $2.95 level itself aligns with the 0.618 retracement zone, acting as a psychological and technical floor. If buyers defend this level, XRP could retest the $3.60 high and extend to $4.33–$4.72. Conversely, a breakdown below $2.74 would invalidate the bullish case, potentially dragging the price toward $2.50.

Regulatory Tailwinds and Macro Catalysts

The SEC's reclassification of XRP as a digital commodity in August 2025 has unlocked institutional access and ETF potential, shifting the narrative from speculative volatility to real-world utility. Partnerships like XRP Ledger's collaboration with Chinese fintech firm Linklogis to commercialize trade-backed digital assets further bolster XRP's adoption story.

Bitcoin's recent underperformance (30-day correlation of 0.58 with XRP) suggests XRP is decoupling from broader crypto sentiment, a positive sign for its standalone momentum. However, macro risks—such as a broader market selloff or regulatory setbacks—remain.

Investment Thesis: Positioning for the Breakout

For investors, the $2.95 support level is a make-or-break moment. A clean breakout above $3.05 would confirm bullish momentum, with $3.35 as the first major resistance. If XRP holds above $2.95 and sustains a rally, the $4.40–$5.80 range becomes a realistic target, with $7–$8 possible if ETF-related momentum accelerates.

Key entry levels:
- Bullish: Buy on a close above $3.05 with a stop-loss below $2.90.
- Bearish: Short if XRP breaks below $2.74, targeting $2.50.

Risk Management: Given the high volatility, position sizing and trailing stops are critical. Investors should also monitor the MVRV Z-Score and NVT ratio for early signs of overvaluation.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Tipping Point

XRP's $2.95 support level is more than a technical pivot—it's a battleground between bulls and bears. With institutional absorption, Fibonacci alignment, and regulatory clarity in play, the asset is poised for a breakout or breakdown. Traders who recognize this inflection point could position themselves for a multi-dollar rally, but caution is warranted. As always, the market's next move will depend on whether buyers can defend this critical floor—or if sellers will drag XRP into uncharted territory.