XRP Price's Latest Bounce Lacks Follow-Through as Sellers Stay in Control

XRP edged higher over the past 24 hours, rising roughly 2% in a modest relief move after last week’s sharp sell-off according to crypto analysis. Despite the brief rally, technical indicators and volume metrics continue to suggest a lack of sustained buying interest. The token remains locked in a broader downtrend, marked by lower highs and lower lows since late January.

The relative strength index (RSI) for XRP is currently in the mid-30s, below the 50-level neutrality threshold. This suggests bearish momentum remains intact even after the recent bounce. Additionally, on-balance volume (OBV) has continued to decline, indicating ongoing selling pressure.

XRP has not yet broken above the 20-day simple moving average, currently around $1.68. This reinforces the bearish bias and suggests that any rallies are likely to face immediate resistance.

Why the Move Happened

The latest 2% rise in XRP is largely viewed as a short-term consolidation rather than a reversal. Analysts point to short covering and temporary relief buying as the main drivers of the rally, rather than genuine demand from long-term investors.

The broader cryptocurrency market has experienced heightened volatility, with Bitcoin falling to around $60,000. This triggered forced liquidations across leveraged positions, contributing to downward pressure on XRP and other altcoins.

How Markets Responded

XRP has extended its decline over the past 24 hours, dropping 9.77% to trade near $1.30. The move intensified after the token failed to hold the $1.50 support level, sparking a sharp pullback. The downside drag brought XRP as low as $1.13, a level not seen since the October 2025 sell-off.

Despite the recent rebound, open interest remains low, and there is a lack of new long positions entering the market. This suggests the current move is primarily driven by short liquidation.

What Analysts Are Watching

Key technical resistance levels for XRP include the $2.05–$2.30 zone, which corresponds to major Fibonacci retracement levels. A sustained break above this range would be necessary to shift the short-term outlook.

On the downside, the $1.05–$1.15 range is seen as a critical support zone. While buyers have shown interest in this area, the lack of follow-through and falling open interest suggests that the recovery is being driven by short covering.

Analysts are also monitoring the 20-day moving average, currently at $1.68, as a key indicator of trend strength. A sustained move above this level could signal a potential reversal, but current price action suggests continued bearish control.

Bank of America has recently invested in an XRP ETF, purchasing 13,000 shares worth approximately $224,640. This move highlights the bank's interest in Ripple and its cross-border payment solutions.

The XRP ETF market has seen mixed inflows, with early February 2026 reporting net inflows of 12.6 million XRP. However, outflows have also been reported, with 590,000 XRP withdrawn in the same period. This suggests that institutional interest remains cautious and could influence near-term price movements.

What's Next for XRP

The broader macroeconomic environment continues to pose challenges for high-beta assets like XRP. The Federal Reserve has signaled a more conservative approach, with fewer cuts expected in 2026. This has reduced liquidity and increased pressure on speculative assets.

Ripple has secured a full Electronic Money Institution license in Luxembourg, which could support long-term adoption of XRP in European markets. However, the translation of regulatory progress into on-chain activity will take time and may not impact near-term price action.

The XRP Ledger has also activated Permissioned Domains under the XLS-80 amendment, which allows for regulated access to the network. This development is seen as a structural improvement but does not directly impact supply or demand in the short term.

Elliott Wave and Fibonacci analysis suggest a potential target of $7 for XRP, assuming a successful breakout and sustained bullish momentum. However, this scenario is contingent on buyers defending key support levels.

A breakdown below $1.00 would open the door to further downside, potentially testing $0.78 as a deeper structural target. Traders and investors are closely watching the $1.50–$1.56 range as a critical decision point for the market. A clean break below this level could confirm the continuation of the current downtrend.

Overall, while regulatory and structural developments provide a long-term case for XRP, current price action and macroeconomic factors continue to favor a bearish bias. Until fresh buying interest emerges and momentum indicators turn positive, XRP remains at a high risk of further downside in the near term.