When Will XRP Price Increase? Regulatory Clarity and Whale Activity as Precursors to a Bullish Move

The XRP price trajectory in 2025 was shaped by two pivotal forces: regulatory resolution and whale behavior. After a four-year legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Ripple's August 2025 settlement marked a turning point, clarifying XRP's status as a non-security on public exchanges. This development, coupled with strategic accumulation by large holders, has set the stage for a potential bullish resurgence in 2026. However, the path forward remains contingent on macroeconomic conditions, institutional adoption, and the interplay between regulatory frameworks and market sentiment.

Regulatory Clarity: A Foundation for Institutional Adoption

The SEC's August 2025 settlement, which required Ripple to pay $50 million, resolved a critical uncertainty for XRP. By ruling that XRP is not a security when traded on public exchanges, the court enabled U.S. exchanges to relist the token, unlocking liquidity and institutional interest. This clarity was further amplified in November 2025 with the approval of spot XRP ETFs, which attracted $1.07 billion in inflows within their first month. These ETFs reduced exchange-based XRP supply by 45%, signaling strong demand from institutional investors.

Yet, the broader regulatory landscape remains fragmented. While the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) Regulation began implementation in early 2025, the U.S. continues to debate the CLARITY Act, with delays over stablecoin yields and DeFi oversight. Ripple, however, has positioned itself as a proactive advocate for structured frameworks, securing a preliminary e-money license in Luxembourg to expand its regulated payment services in the EU. Such moves underscore the company's commitment to compliance, which could bolster XRP's institutional appeal despite U.S. legislative delays.

Whale Activity: Accumulation Amid Volatility

Whale behavior in late 2025 revealed a nuanced narrative. Between September and November 2025, XRP whales accumulated 340 million tokens, increasing large wallet holdings to over 7.8 billion XRP. This accumulation occurred during a price correction from July's $3.67 high to $1.90–$2.20, as retail traders panicked. The move reflected strategic positioning by large holders, who capitalized on thin liquidity and regulatory optimism.

By early 2026, whale activity surged to a three-month high, with 2,802 transactions valued at $100,000 or more recorded on January 6. This spike coincided with renewed institutional interest and discussions around XRP's utility in the XRP Ledger (XRPL). Notably, over 800 million XRP tokens were moved off exchanges into cold storage and institutional custody by December 2025, indicating accumulation rather than distribution. On-chain data showed no significant Coin Days Destroyed spikes, suggesting older holdings were not being liquidated.

However, whale activity has also shown bearish signals. In December 2025, aggressive selling by large holders reduced XRP holdings from 70 billion to 57 billion tokens, aligning with a broader distribution trend. This selling pressure coincided with the A/D line trending downward since August, reflecting sustained bearish momentum. The conflicting signals-accumulation into cold storage versus large-scale selling-highlight the complexity of whale-driven price dynamics.

The Road to a Bullish Breakout

Despite mixed whale signals, the regulatory clarity achieved in 2025 provides a strong foundation for XRP's potential resurgence. The token outperformed Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2025, which saw declines of 18% and 27% respectively. This resilience, coupled with growing institutional adoption (e.g., ETFs and CME infrastructure), suggests that XRP's fundamentals are strengthening.

A key catalyst for a bullish breakout could be the resolution of the CLARITY Act and broader U.S. crypto legislation. Ripple's advocacy for clear regulatory boundaries- arguing that crypto classification should not depend on sales methods-aligns with industry demands for structured frameworks. If the U.S. adopts a pro-innovation stance, XRP could benefit from increased institutional flows and reduced legal ambiguity.

Additionally, whale accumulation patterns indicate that large holders are positioning for long-term gains. The $3.8 billion worth of XRP acquired by whales in late July 2025 and the 70 million tokens moved from dormant wallets in July suggest confidence in XRP's utility and market potential. These actions, combined with expanding XRPL use cases (e.g., cross-border payments), could drive a price surge if macroeconomic conditions improve.

Conclusion

The interplay between regulatory clarity and whale activity paints a cautiously optimistic picture for XRP. While the SEC settlement and ETF approvals have laid the groundwork for institutional adoption, macroeconomic headwinds and competitive pressures from faster blockchains remain challenges. Whale behavior, characterized by strategic accumulation and occasional distribution, underscores the token's volatility but also its potential for a significant price move.

For XRP to break out meaningfully in 2026, three conditions must align: (1) favorable regulatory developments in the U.S., (2) sustained institutional demand, and (3) improved macroeconomic conditions. If these factors converge, XRP could retest its 2025 high of $3.67 or even surpass it, particularly if the CLARITY Act passes and global adoption of XRPL-based solutions accelerates. Investors should monitor whale activity and regulatory updates closely, as these will likely dictate the next phase of XRP's journey.