XRP Price Eyes $3: Assessing the Case for a Retest Amid Whale Selloff and RSI Divergence

The XRP price narrative in late 2025 remains a study in contrasts: technical indicators hint at short-term resilience, while fundamental uncertainties—particularly regulatory ambiguity—loom large. As the asset consolidates near critical support levels, investors must weigh whether this is a setup for a retest of $0.3200 or a precursor to deeper correction.

Technical Reentry Opportunities: A Fragile Balance

XRP's recent price action reflects a tug-of-war between bullish momentum and bearish caution. After peaking at $0.3168, the asset corrected to $0.3070, a level that has historically acted as a psychological floor . A rebound above this level—now coinciding with the 100-hourly simple moving average—has rekindled optimism, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently above 50 and trending upward . This suggests buyers are stepping in, but the path forward is fraught.

Resistance at $0.3120 is a critical juncture. A sustained breakout here could trigger a retest of $0.3150 and eventually $0.3200, levels that have historically correlated with increased institutional participation . However, a breakdown below $0.3070 would likely accelerate selling pressure toward $0.3030, exposing weaker hands and potentially reigniting bearish sentiment.

Fundamental Drivers: Utility vs. Regulatory Risk

Ripple's long-term value proposition hinges on its ability to cement XRP's role in cross-border payments. The company's pivot from measuring success by the number of banks on its network to payment volume—a shift emphasized in 2023—suggests a focus on real-world utility over network expansion Price Analysis: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, XRP/USD, LTC/USD^[3]. This aligns with broader trends in DeFi, where transactional value often trumps user metrics.

Yet, regulatory headwinds remain a wildcard. While Ripple has made strides in aligning with global financial standards, the absence of concrete 2025 updates means investors are left guessing. A repeat of the 2023–2024 SEC litigation saga could trigger a liquidity crisis, even if the underlying technology matures .

Whale Activity: A Missing Piece of the Puzzle

The lack of recent whale activity data is a glaring gap in assessing XRP's trajectory. Historically, large holders have dictated price cycles, with accumulation phases often preceding bullish runs. However, the absence of confirmed whale inflows or outflows in 2025 leaves analysts reliant on indirect signals, such as on-chain metrics and exchange reserve balances .

This opacity complicates reentry strategies. For instance, while the $0.3070 support level has held, it's unclear whether this is due to retail buying or institutional hedging. Without visibility into whale behavior, technical signals like RSI divergence must be interpreted cautiously.

The $3 Retest: A Long-Term Gamble

The idea of XRP retesting $3—a price last seen in 2018—requires a leap of faith. At current valuations (~$0.30), the asset would need to appreciate ~900% to reach that level. While Ripple's infrastructure ambitions and growing adoption in remittance corridors provide a theoretical basis for such optimism, the timeline remains speculative.

Historical price predictions, such as the 2017–2019 forecasts of $0.60 and $0.80, underscore the volatility of XRP's trajectory Price Analysis: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, XRP/USD, LTC/USD^[3]. A $3 retest would likely depend on two factors: (1) a seismic shift in regulatory clarity, and (2) a dramatic increase in XRP's utility as a settlement asset. Neither appears imminent.

Conclusion: Proceed with Caution

For investors considering reentry, the current setup offers both opportunity and risk. Technically, XRP's consolidation near $0.3070 presents a low-risk entry for those bullish on a $0.3200 retest. Fundamentally, Ripple's ecosystem shows promise, but regulatory uncertainty and the absence of whale-driven accumulation create a high-stakes environment.

The $3 price target remains a distant possibility, contingent on macroeconomic shifts and institutional adoption. Until then, traders should prioritize risk management, using stop-loss orders below $0.3070 and scaling into positions only after a confirmed breakout above $0.3120.