XRP Price Chart and Whale Activity Warn of a Drop Below $1

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XRP has declined more than 30% over the past month amid heightened on-chain stress signals. Recent data highlights a surge in realized losses and large holder transfers, indicating growing investor anxiety. These patterns align with historical capitulation phases, often seen before market bottoms.

The price of XRP dropped below $1.40, a key on-chain threshold tied to realized value. This level is typically viewed as a weaker market phase when breached. On Feb. 21, over 31 million XRP were transferred to Binance, raising concerns about potential distribution and sell pressure.

Rising capitulation metrics suggest investors are locking in losses to avoid further declines. Analysts note that such extreme fear can precede rebounds, even with modest new demand. The likelihood of immediate downside remains high, but historical parallels imply a relief bounce may follow if selling pressure subsides.

Why Did This Happen?

Risk-off sentiment has returned to the market, driven by renewed U.S. tariff threats from Donald Trump. These threats contributed to a 4.5% drop in XRP to $1.33 on Feb. 23. Tariff uncertainty often impacts asset prices broadly, with cryptocurrencies like XRP being especially sensitive to macroeconomic shifts.

The movement of 31 million XRP to Binance on Feb. 21 has raised alarms about potential sell pressure. Large holders often signal bearish intent when moving significant amounts of tokens to exchanges. Market observers are watching closely to see if this distribution leads to further price erosion.

How Did Markets Respond?

XRP's price action has reflected investor uncertainty over the past month. The 30% drop has led to increased realized losses on-chain, a sign that traders are exiting positions to mitigate risk. The realized value level of $1.40 has been breached, a level that has historically signaled weaker phases in XRP's price action.

Analysts are observing whether this capitulation phase will trigger a short-term rebound. Historical data suggests that extreme fear often precedes a market bottom, though the likelihood of immediate upside remains low. Even modest new demand could spark a relief bounce if selling pressure exhausts.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

On-chain stress metrics are being closely monitored for signs of exhaustion in the current selling wave. If these indicators stabilize or reverse, it could signal a shift in sentiment. The realized loss metric, in particular, is seen as a key barometer of capitulation in the XRP market.

Market participants are also watching for macroeconomic developments, particularly the potential impact of U.S. tariff policies. These policies have previously caused volatility in digital assets and may continue to influence XRP's trajectory.

The movement of large XRP holdings to Binance remains a key focus. Large holder activity is often a precursor to broader market moves, especially during periods of uncertainty. Analysts will assess whether these transfers lead to further price weakness or are part of a larger strategic distribution.