XRP Price Analysis: Is This the Bottom or a Setup for Deeper Correction?

The XRP price action in late 2025 has painted a complex picture of divergence between technical indicators and macro-level sentiment. On one hand, bearish momentum from a death cross and collapsing support levels suggests further downside. On the other, institutional ETF inflows and late-cycle accumulation by long-term holders hint at potential stabilization. For investors, the critical question remains: Is XRP's current selloff a buying opportunity, or does it signal a deeper correction?

Technical Indicators: A Bearish Narrative

XRP's technical structure has deteriorated sharply since the formation of a death cross in early November 2025, where the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average. This classic bearish signal has historically preceded extended downtrends, and XRP's price action since then has reinforced the bearish case. By December 23, 2025, the token traded near $1.88–$1.90, down 50% from its July peak of $3.67, with key support levels at $2.20, $2.00, and $1.80 under pressure according to technical analysis.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) further validate the bearish momentum. While the RSI briefly stabilized in neutral territory (around 47), the MACD histogram flipped below zero in mid-November, signaling waning bullish momentum as technical indicators show. A breakdown below the $1.80 level-a critical psychological and technical threshold-could trigger a cascade toward $1.62 and eventually $1.25, levels last seen in April 2025 according to price analysis.

However, some analysts argue that the death cross's bearish signal is incomplete. XRP has remained above the 200-day moving average with a slight upward trend in late November, suggesting that the bearish case requires further confirmation of declining momentum below both moving averages according to analyst reports. For now, the technical structure reflects a post-blowoff unwind, with a bearish regression channel dominating price action as market analysis indicates.

Macro Sentiment Divergence: ETF Inflows vs. Whale Distribution

While technical indicators lean bearish, macro-level data reveals a divergence. XRP ETFs have attracted robust institutional interest, with cumulative inflows exceeding $1.2 billion since their launch. A single $43.89 million inflow on December 23 marked the highest in the prior two weeks, despite declining retail sentiment according to market data. This accumulation suggests that institutional investors view XRP as a strategic asset, even amid broader market weakness.

Yet this bullish narrative clashes with whale activity. Large holders reduced their combined stake by 100 million XRP (worth $185–$190 million) between December 27 and 28, signaling aggressive distribution as trading data shows. This contrasts with late-cycle buying by long-term and mid-term holders, who added 9.03 million and 15.90 million XRP, respectively, on December 27 and 29 according to volume reports. Such behavior is typical of local downtrends, where retail panic creates buying opportunities for patient investors.

The divergence between ETF inflows and whale selling underscores a tug-of-war between institutional accumulation and retail-driven fear. While ETFs provide a floor for demand, they have yet to offset the selling pressure from whales and spot traders as market analysis reveals.

Regulatory Uncertainty: A Double-Edged Sword

Regulatory developments add another layer of complexity. Ripple's ongoing push to redefine XRP as a commodity-rather than a security-has gained traction, with recent court rulings supporting this classification according to legal developments. However, lingering legislative stalls in the U.S. Senate and potential restrictions on XRP ETFs or stablecoin operations remain headwinds as regulatory analysis shows.

Despite these uncertainties, market projections under a favorable regulatory environment remain bullish. Analysts predict XRP could surge to $5.80–$8.60 in 2026, with even higher potential by 2027 according to price forecasts. For now, though, regulatory clarity remains a key catalyst rather than a present-day tailwind.

Is This the Bottom? A Contrarian Perspective

The current price action reflects a classic divergence between short-term technical weakness and long-term macro resilience. For risk-tolerant investors, XRP's collapse near $1.80 could represent a contrarian opportunity, particularly if ETF inflows continue to absorb selling pressure. A sustained rebound above the $2.07–$2.25 resistance band would signal a potential bullish reversal, retesting the $2.64 May 2025 high and the psychological $3.00 threshold according to technical analysis.

However, the bearish case remains intact until XRP reclaims these levels with conviction. A breakdown below $1.80 would likely accelerate the downtrend toward $1.25, especially if macro sentiment deteriorates further. Investors must also monitor whale activity: A return to accumulation by large holders could signal a bottom, while continued distribution would validate deeper corrections.

Conclusion

XRP's price in late 2025 sits at a crossroads. Technically, the death cross and collapsing support levels point to further downside. Macro-wise, ETF inflows and long-term holder accumulation suggest a potential floor. The divergence between these narratives creates both risk and opportunity. For now, the $1.80 level is the linchpin-hold it, and XRP could stabilize; break it, and the bearish case gains momentum. Investors should proceed with caution, using this divergence as a signal to either hedge or selectively accumulate, depending on their risk appetite and time horizon.