XRP's Potential to Reach $5 Billion AUM via ETFs in 2026: Is a Double-Digit Price Move Imminent?

The cryptocurrency market in 2025 has witnessed a seismic shift in institutional adoption, driven by regulatory clarity and the launch of spot XRP ETFs. With the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving multiple XRP ETFs following Ripple's August 2025 settlement, the asset has entered a new era of legitimacy. This analysis explores whether XRP's ETF-driven demand dynamics can propel its assets under management (AUM) to $5 billion by 2026-and whether this will translate into a double-digit price surge.

Regulatory Clarity: The Catalyst for Institutional Adoption

The removal of the legal overhang around XRP was pivotal. Ripple's $50 million settlement with the SEC in August 2025 affirmed that XRP is not a security, enabling institutional investors to engage with the asset without regulatory risk. By November 2025, seven spot XRP ETFs had launched, including the Bitwise XRP ETF (ticker: XRP) and the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF (UXRP), collectively amassing $1.14 billion in AUM within six weeks. These products provided a bridge between traditional finance and crypto, offering investors exposure to XRP without the complexities of digital wallets or exchange trading.

The regulatory tailwinds extended beyond ETFs. Ripple's conditional U.S. banking license, secured in December 2025, further integrated XRP into the traditional financial system, enhancing its utility in cross-border transactions. This institutional infrastructure has created a flywheel effect: clearer regulations attract more asset managers, which in turn drive broader market participation.

ETF Inflows and AUM Projections: A $5 Billion Threshold in Sight?

The pace of XRP ETF inflows has been staggering. In the first four weeks of the Bitwise XRP ETF's launch, inflows exceeded $1 billion, locking up 746 million XRP in custody, and reducing the circulating supply by 45%. Analysts project that these ETFs could surpass $5 billion in AUM by mid-2026, fueled by continued institutional demand and the entry of 11 additional asset managers seeking approval.

Data from 2025 underscores the momentum. Institutional inflows into XRP ETFs outpaced those of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs during the same period, with zero net outflow days recorded in the initial trading phase of spot XRP ETFs. Bitfinex forecasts that crypto ETPs (including XRP ETFs) could exceed $400 billion in AUM by 2026, suggesting a broader trend of institutional capital migrating into crypto.

Price Dynamics: Why Hasn't XRP Moved Higher?

Despite robust ETF demand, XRP's price has remained relatively flat in 2025, declining by approximately 13% year-to-date. This disconnect between inflows and price can be attributed to two factors:

1. Whale Exits: Early investors and large holders have used ETF liquidity to offload positions, creating downward pressure on the price.
2. Market Structure Adjustments: The ETF market is still maturing, and the influx of capital has not yet translated into a self-sustaining price rally.

However, this dynamic may shift in 2026. As ETF AUM grows and more retail and institutional investors enter the market, the balance between supply and demand could tip in favor of buyers. The 45% reduction in circulating supply from ETF custody also creates a scarcity effect, potentially supporting price appreciation if demand continues to outpace selling pressure.

The Path to a Double-Digit Price Move

A double-digit price increase for XRP in 2026 hinges on two key variables:

1. Sustained ETF Inflows: If XRP ETFs reach $5 billion in AUM by mid-2026, the asset's market capitalization could rise to $15–20 billion, assuming a 3–4% allocation to XRP within ETF portfolios.
2. Regulatory Momentum: Continued SEC approval of new XRP ETFs and the expansion of Ripple's banking partnerships could further legitimize the asset, attracting macro investors and hedge funds.

Chad Steingraber, a crypto analyst, predicts that XRP ETFs could achieve the highest first-year percentage gains in Wall Street history by 2026, a scenario that would likely drive XRP's price higher. However, risks remain, including macroeconomic headwinds and potential regulatory shifts.

Conclusion: A Tipping Point for XRP

The confluence of regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and ETF-driven demand positions XRP for a transformative 2026. While the asset's price has yet to reflect its newfound legitimacy, the structural changes in market infrastructure suggest that a double-digit price move is not only possible but increasingly probable. As the AUM of XRP ETFs approaches $5 billion, the asset may finally break free from its historical constraints, cementing its role in the next phase of crypto's institutional evolution.