XRP's Potential Drop Toward $1 in Light of Peter Brandt's Bearish Outlook

The cryptocurrency market has long been a theater of volatility, where technical patterns and macroeconomic forces collide to shape price trajectories. XRP, Ripple's native token, now finds itself at a critical juncture. Veteran trader Peter Brandt's recent bearish analysis-centered on a potential weekly double-top pattern-has reignited debates about XRP's near-term prospects. When combined with macroeconomic headwinds, including regulatory uncertainty, liquidity challenges, and geopolitical tensions, the case for a $1 price target gains urgency. This article dissects the interplay between technical indicators and macro sentiment to assess whether XRP's descent toward $1 is a looming inevitability or a temporary correction.

Technical Analysis: The Double-Top and Beyond

Peter Brandt's bearish thesis hinges on a classic technical pattern: the double-top. According to Brandt, XRP has formed two distinct peaks in 2025, with a critical neckline support level around $2. The pattern was confirmed after a break below $2, suggesting a potential decline toward $1 if the structure holds. This is not a definitive prediction but a cautionary signal. The RSI, currently in oversold territory, could theoretically trigger a rebound if it rises above 50. However, Brandt has expressed skepticism about the pattern's integrity, noting that a sustained recovery would require robust buying pressure to retest the $2 level-a scenario that appears increasingly unlikely given recent on-chain activity.

Whale behavior further amplifies the bearish case. Data from Whale Alert reveals that large holders have sold 1.18 billion XRP over the past four weeks, a move that exerts downward pressure on the price. This selling pressure is compounded by the token's current price action: trading near $1.85, with a 24-hour low of $1.85 and a high of $1.98. The inability to reclaim $2-a psychological and technical threshold-suggests that the double-top pattern may continue to dictate XRP's trajectory.

Macro Sentiment: Regulatory Clarity vs. Liquidity Challenges

While technical indicators paint a bearish picture, macroeconomic factors add nuance. XRP's legal victory over the SEC in August 2025-a landmark ruling affirming that secondary market sales of XRP are not securities-was initially seen as a catalyst for institutional adoption. However, the token's price has underperformed expectations, closing at $1.88 in late 2025, down 13% year-to-date. The approval of XRP spot ETFs in November brought $1 billion in institutional inflows within four weeks, but these funds were largely used by early investors and whales to exit positions, leaving the price flat.

The broader macroeconomic environment has also weighed on XRP. Rising interest-rate volatility and the October 10 deleveraging event-a $19 billion liquidation across crypto markets-exacerbated XRP's downward spiral. During this period, XRP's price plummeted from $2.70 to as low as $1.64, with some exchanges reporting troughs at $0.77. This flash crash was triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, reigniting trade-war fears and triggering a "risk-off" sentiment. Post-crash liquidity remains structurally weaker, with order-book depth for XRP dropping to $1.3 million from $2.5 million in October.

Alignment of Technical and Macro Factors

The convergence of technical and macroeconomic signals strengthens the case for a $1 price target. Technically, XRP's death cross-a bearish EMA crossover-emerged in October 2025, signaling deteriorating momentum. This was accompanied by a surge in the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which approached 1.00, indicating widespread selling under loss. Meanwhile, macroeconomic headwinds-such as the October deleveraging event and Fed rate cuts-created a feedback loop of panic selling and liquidity crunches.

Institutional adoption, however, offers a counterbalance. U.S.-listed XRP spot ETFs recorded $10.89 million in inflows on December 15, 2025, marking 19 consecutive days of net inflows. These inflows reflect steady accumulation despite short-term price weakness. Yet, they represent only a fraction of the broader market, and XRP's ability to sustain this momentum depends on macroeconomic stabilization and regulatory clarity.

Conclusion: A $1 Target in Focus

The alignment of Peter Brandt's bearish technical analysis with macroeconomic headwinds paints a compelling case for XRP's potential drop toward $1. The double-top pattern, confirmed by a break below $2, remains a key technical driver. Meanwhile, regulatory uncertainty, liquidity challenges, and geopolitical tensions have amplified downward pressure. While institutional adoption and ETF inflows provide a floor, they are insufficient to counteract the broader bearish forces at play.

Investors should monitor two critical levels: $1.92, a psychological support that, if breached, could trigger further declines, and $2, a retest of which would signal a potential reversal. For now, the technical and macroeconomic narratives converge on a $1 price target-a level that could become a reality if the double-top pattern holds and macro conditions fail to stabilize.