Is XRP Poised for a Major Reversal at Key Support?

The XRP price has entered a critical juncture as it tests structural support levels near $1.90–$1.95, with technical indicators suggesting potential exhaustion in selling pressure. For investors, the question is no longer if XRP will rebound, but when and how the market will respond to these conditions. A confluence of rare Stochastic RSI readings, historical price behavior, and institutional inflows paints a compelling case for a short-to-medium-term reversal.

Technical Exhaustion: Stochastic RSI at a Historic Threshold

XRP's Stochastic RSI on the 3-week chart recently hit 0.00 for the second time in its history-a level last seen in 2020 during the Terra LUNA crash, prior to the asset bottoming at $0.28. This extreme oversold condition signals that selling pressure may be nearing its peak. While immediate reversals are not guaranteed, such readings often precede significant turning points in asset cycles.

The current price action, hovering around $1.86–$1.87, is trapped in a narrow range below the psychological $2 level. However, the persistence of this consolidation suggests a potential inflection point. As analysts note, the Stochastic RSI's extreme exhaustion could act as a catalyst for buyers to step in, particularly if institutional demand continues to grow.

Structural Support: The $1.95–$2.00 Range as a Psychological Battleground

The $1.95–$2.00 range has historically served as a critical support cluster for XRP. A weekly close below $1.95 would likely trigger further downside risks, with $1.80 as the next key level to watch. A breakdown below $1.80 could accelerate the slide toward $1.62, with further risks to $1.25 if the bearish trend persists. Conversely, a reclaim of the $1.95–$2.00 range would signal renewed buyer confidence and open the door to a rally toward $3.66, assuming momentum builds.

This dynamic is not merely technical-it's psychological. The $2 level has long been a symbolic threshold for XRP, and its repeated testing could force a reevaluation of market sentiment. Traders and institutions alike are likely monitoring this range closely, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy where support becomes resistance and vice versa.

Institutional Demand: ETF Inflows as a Hidden Catalyst

While retail traders may be sidelined by XRP's volatility, institutional interest remains robust. XRP ETFs have recorded consistent net inflows since their launch in November 2025, accumulating over $1.1 billion in net assets. This sustained demand suggests that institutional players are either hedging against further declines or positioning for a potential rebound.

Such inflows are particularly significant in the context of oversold conditions. Historically, institutional buying often accelerates during periods of technical exhaustion, as long-term investors capitalize on undervaluation. If this pattern holds, the current ETF-driven inflows could provide the necessary liquidity to spark a reversal.

The Bullish Case: A Path to $3.66

For XRP to stage a meaningful reversal, three conditions must align:
1. Price must hold above $1.95 to prevent a cascade of stop-loss orders.
2. Stochastic RSI must show divergence (e.g., higher highs in price with lower lows in the indicator), signaling waning bearish momentum.
3. ETF inflows must continue to validate institutional conviction.

If these conditions materialize, XRP could follow a textbook bullish pattern. A retest of $1.95–$2.00 as support, combined with a breakout above $2.50, could trigger a rally toward $3.66. This target is not arbitrary-it aligns with Fibonacci retracement levels and historical resistance clusters, making it a high-probability destination for a sustained rally.

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Scenario

XRP's current setup is a classic case of technical exhaustion meeting structural support. While the risks of a breakdown below $1.80 remain, the confluence of rare Stochastic RSI readings, institutional inflows, and psychological price levels creates a compelling case for a reversal. Investors should treat this as a high-risk, high-reward opportunity, with strict stop-loss placement below $1.80 to mitigate downside.

As the market approaches this inflection point, the coming weeks will be critical. For those willing to navigate the volatility, XRP's $1.95–$2.00 range could mark the beginning of a new bull cycle-or the final capitulation before a deeper bear phase. The data suggests the former is more likely, but only time will tell.