Is XRP Poised for a 70% Rally to $3.65, Mirroring Its 2025 Breakout?

The cryptocurrency market is no stranger to volatility, but XRP's recent trajectory has sparked renewed optimism. With the token trading near $2.12 in early 2026, many are asking: Could XRP replicate its 2025 breakout and surge 70% to $3.65? The answer lies in the convergence of technical patterns, institutional adoption, and regulatory progress.

Technical Catalysts: Fractals and Historical Parallels

Zach Rector, a leading XRP analyst, has long argued that fractal patterns govern the token's price action. His revised 2025 timeline, adjusted for market conditions, now targets $20–$30 for near-term gains and $100 by 2030. Crucially, Rector's July 2025 fractal analysis suggests XRP could mirror its previous rally, with a potential move from $2.12 to $3.60. This aligns with broader historical patterns: XRP's 2017/2018 bull run saw a 61,000% gain after a sharp correction, and the 2024 U.S. election period's performance further reinforces the idea of cyclical rebounds.

Moreover, on-chain data reveals a bullish setup. Exchange balances for XRP are at an eight-year low, signaling reduced selling pressure and long-term positioning. If XRP sustains above $1.80-a key technical level-this could trigger a self-fulfilling prophecy as traders and algorithms react to the breakout according to analysts.

Fundamental Drivers: ETFs, CLARITY Act, and Whale Accumulation

While technical patterns provide a roadmap, fundamentals are the engine. XRP's institutional adoption has accelerated, with U.S. spot XRP ETFs attracting $1.18 billion in inflows by early 2026. These ETFs, among the best-performing crypto launches of 2025 according to analysts, reflect growing confidence in XRP's utility as a bridge between traditional finance and tokenized markets.

Regulatory clarity is another critical catalyst. The CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633), which passed the House in July 2025, is set for a Senate markup in early 2026 according to policy trackers. This legislation aims to establish a framework for crypto regulation, potentially resolving the SEC's long-standing ambiguity around XRP's status. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has emphasized that the CLARITY Act could unlock institutional capital by providing legal certainty, a claim supported by the $3.6 billion in whale accumulation reported since late 2025 according to data.

Whales, too, are positioning for a rally. On-chain metrics show large holders are accumulating XRP at a pace not seen since the 2021 bull run. This contrasts with retail sentiment, which has hit "extreme negativity" (Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 24) according to sentiment analysis, a level historically followed by sharp rebounds.

Convergence of Catalysts: A $3.65 Target in Sight

The interplay between technical and fundamental factors creates a compelling case for XRP's near-term rally. Fractal analysis suggests a $3.60–$3.65 price target, while ETF inflows and whale accumulation indicate strong demand. Regulatory progress, particularly the CLARITY Act's potential passage, could act as a catalyst to push XRP beyond $3.65.

However, risks remain. XRP closed 2025 at $1.85, down from its 2025 peak of $3.66, and technical indicators remain bearish if the token fails to hold above $1.80. Yet, the combination of institutional buying, regulatory optimism, and historical price patterns suggests that XRP's next move could mirror its 2025 breakout.

Conclusion

XRP's journey to $3.65 hinges on the alignment of fractal patterns, ETF momentum, and regulatory clarity. While the path is not without obstacles, the confluence of these factors-along with whale accumulation and divergent retail sentiment-positions XRP as a prime candidate for a 70% rally. For investors, the key will be monitoring ETF inflows, CLARITY Act developments, and on-chain activity to gauge whether the market is ready to embrace XRP's next chapter.