Is XRP Poised for a 10% Correction in September 2025? Balancing Short-Term Bearish Signals and Long-Term Institutional Optimism

Short-Term Bearish Signals: A Volatile September Unfolds

XRP entered September 2025 under intense bearish pressure, with the price testing critical support levels as technical indicators signaled potential further declines. By mid-September, XRP had fallen 4% in the previous 24 hours, breaking below the $2.80 support level and triggering heavy selling with volumes nearly tripling the daily average [1]. This breakdown reinforced a bearish MACD crossover on the weekly chart, suggesting a 10–25% correction could unfold, with targets at $2.50 or $2.60 [1].

On-chain metrics painted a mixed picture. While institutional liquidations reached $1.9 billion since July [1], whale wallets accumulated 340 million XRP over two weeks, bringing their total holdings to 7.84 billion XRP [1]. This accumulation suggests a potential floor for the price, but the largest cost basis cluster for XRP—1.71 billion tokens acquired between $2.81 and $2.82—remains a critical battleground for stability [1]. A breakdown below $2.70 could trigger a sharper decline to $2.08, representing a 25% drop from current levels [4].

Technical patterns also reinforced the bearish narrative. XRP remains trapped in a descending triangle, with resistance near $2.95–$3.00 and support at $2.77–$2.80 [2]. Active addresses on the XRP Ledger plummeted from 50,000 in mid-July to 19,250 by late September, signaling reduced user engagement [4]. Meanwhile, futures open interest fell from $10.94 billion to $7.7 billion, reflecting waning investor conviction [4].

Long-Term Institutional Optimism: A Foundation for Resilience

Despite the short-term turbulence, long-term institutional optimism for XRP remains robust. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) 2024 litigation resolution—finalized in August 2025—cleared XRP as a non-security in public market transactions, removing a major barrier to institutional adoption [1]. This regulatory clarity has already spurred significant inflows, with the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF (UXRP) attracting $1.2 billion in July 2025 [1]. Analysts project that the approval of 11 additional XRP spot ETFs could inject up to $8.4 billion into the market by mid-October 2025, enhancing liquidity and upward momentum [2].

Ripple’s real-world utility further strengthens the case for XRP. Its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) service processed $1.3 trillion in cross-border transactions in Q2 2025, while partnerships with Santander, Standard Chartered, and BNY Mellon (via the RLUSD stablecoin) underscore XRP’s role in global financial infrastructure [1]. Institutional investors have also continued to accumulate XRP, adding 340 million tokens in September despite market volatility [1].

Weighing the Scales: Correction or Catalyst?

The immediate bearish signals suggest a 10% correction is plausible in September 2025, particularly if XRP fails to reclaim $2.80. However, the long-term fundamentals—driven by regulatory clarity, ETF inflows, and real-world adoption—position XRP as a potential rebound candidate. The Money Flow Index (MFI) displayed bullish divergence, rising from 31.24 on August 22 to 47.49 on September 1, indicating increased buying pressure despite falling prices [3]. This divergence, combined with whale accumulation, hints at a possible short-covering rally if bulls defend the $2.80 level [1].

For investors, the key lies in timing. A breakdown below $2.70 could test the $2.08 support, but a successful defense of $2.80 might push XRP toward $2.95–$3.00, with a potential target of $3.20–$3.60 [2]. The approval of XRP ETFs by mid-October could act as a catalyst, potentially driving the price toward $5 or higher by year-end [1].

Conclusion: A Delicate Balance

XRP’s September 2025 trajectory hinges on the interplay between short-term bearish momentum and long-term institutional confidence. While technical indicators and on-chain data suggest a 10% correction is possible, the broader narrative of regulatory progress and institutional adoption provides a floor for recovery. Investors must monitor key levels—$2.80 for support and $2.95–$3.00 for resistance—while keeping an eye on ETF approvals and macroeconomic conditions. In a market as volatile as crypto, patience and strategic positioning may prove more valuable than panic.

**Source:[1]
The Catalysts Behind XRP's Price Momentum in 2025[2]
XRP ETF Approval Updates, Insights and Outlook[3]
XRP Price Starts September Weak, But Metrics Signal 8%[4]
XRP Price: Fear Grips Market as Token Tests Key Support