XRP at a Pivotal Support Level: Is $1.90 the Floor or a Precipice?

The XRP price action in late 2025 has crystallized a critical juncture for investors, as the token hovers near the $1.90 support level-a psychological and technical fulcrum that could either catalyze a rebound or signal the onset of a deeper bearish phase. With mixed signals from technical indicators and a surge in institutional demand creating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the market is at a crossroads. This analysis synthesizes recent technical developments, ETF inflows, and on-chain metrics to evaluate whether $1.90 represents a strategic entry point or a warning of further downside.

Technical Analysis: A Fractured Defense at $1.90

XRP's recent price trajectory has been defined by a series of failed attempts to sustain gains above $1.93, with sellers dominating the $1.95–$1.90 corridor. According to a report by , the TD Sequential indicator has flashed a potential local top following a recovery from a multi-week low, a signal historically correlated with corrections in XRP's cycles. This aligns with broader price action showing lower highs and intensifying selling pressure, suggesting a possible exhaustion of bullish momentum.

The $1.90 level, however, has not yet capitulated entirely. Buyers have intermittently stepped in to stabilize the price around $1.89–$1.90, indicating short-term resilience. Yet, a clean breakdown below this level could trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders and expose XRP to a broader retracement. Analysts caution that such a move might target $1.80 or even $1.52, depending on the velocity of the breakdown. The RSI and MACD indicators currently hover near neutral territory, signaling a coiled market awaiting a directional catalyst.

Institutional Demand: ETF Inflows and On-Chain Accumulation

While technical indicators remain ambiguous, institutional demand for XRP has surged, offering a counterbalance to bearish pressures. reveals that U.S. spot XRP ETFs attracted $1.2 billion in net inflows by late 2025, driven by tokenized asset settlements and real-world asset (RWA) adoption on the XRP Ledger. This inflow has coincided with a 45% reduction in XRP exchange balances, shrinking the circulating supply from 3.95 billion to 2.6 billion tokens-a sign of controlled accumulation.

Whale activity further underscores institutional confidence. Large holders have increased their XRP supply to 12.8% of the total float and opened significant long positions near $1.92, temporarily absorbing sell pressure. On-chain metrics, such as spent-coin movement, show a 95% decline in XRP being moved to exchanges for selling, reflecting a strategic withdrawal of active sell supply. This dynamic suggests that institutional and ETF demand is quietly absorbing float while retail investors remain sidelined.

Divergence in Sentiment: Retail Pessimism vs. Institutional Optimism

Retail traders have grown increasingly bearish, with social sentiment hitting historically low levels and 37% of holders sitting on unrealized losses. Futures open interest at $3.71 billion also highlights limited speculative activity, contrasting with the robust ETF inflows. This divergence mirrors broader market dynamics where institutional adoption often outpaces retail sentiment, particularly in asset classes like XRP that are undergoing structural shifts.

Investment Implications: A Calculated Approach

The interplay between technical fragility and institutional strength creates a nuanced investment case. If $1.90 holds on daily closes, XRP could retest $2.35, leveraging ETF-driven demand to reverse part of its 45% price decline since July. However, a sustained breakdown below $1.90 would likely accelerate selling, testing deeper support levels at $1.82 or $1.52.

For investors, this scenario demands a balanced strategy. A strategic entry near $1.90 could capitalize on institutional accumulation, provided stop-loss orders are placed below $1.85 to mitigate downside risk. Conversely, those with a bearish bias might consider shorting above $1.95, where TD Sequential signals suggest a potential exhaustion of bullish momentum.

Conclusion

XRP's $1.90 support level is a microcosm of the broader market's tug-of-war between technical weakness and institutional strength. While the TD Sequential buy signal and ETF inflows hint at a potential floor, the risk of a deeper correction remains if sellers dominate the critical $1.90 zone. Investors must weigh these signals carefully, recognizing that the next move will likely hinge on whether institutional demand can overpower bearish technical dynamics.