XRP at a Pivotal Inflection Point: Can $2.16 Spark the Next Major Bull Run?

The XRP price action in late 2025 has positioned the token at a critical juncture, with the $2.16 level emerging as a focal point for both technical and on-chain analysis. After a 45% decline from its July 2025 peak of $3.66, XRP's price trajectory has been shaped by institutional adoption, macroeconomic pressures, and whale-driven liquidity shifts. The $2.16 level, once a key support, has now become a contested battleground for bulls and bears. This article examines whether this price level can catalyze a sustained bull run, leveraging technical patterns, on-chain data, and institutional dynamics.

Technical Analysis: A Fractured Support and Mixed Signals

XRP's breakdown below $2.16 in December 2025 marked a pivotal shift in its technical structure. The price had previously consolidated between $2.16 and $2.28, forming a bearish pennant pattern as buyers failed to defend the $2.16 support according to analysis. This breakdown was confirmed by a surge in trading volume to 309.2 million tokens-4.6 times the rolling average-indicating institutional selling rather than random retail-driven panic as data shows. The subsequent move into a descending channel, defined by lower highs at $2.38, $2.30, and $2.22, suggests a continuation bias unless a high-volume reversal occurs as technical analysis indicates.

Technical indicators remain mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has settled in neutral territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hints at latent bullish momentum beneath the surface. However, the price remains trapped in a compression zone between $1.85 and $1.95, with a clean breakout above $2.11 required to target the $2.20–$2.26 supply zone as reports suggest. Analysts caution that a failure to hold above $2.00 could expose the $1.82–$1.81 range, further deepening the bearish case according to market analysis.

On-Chain Validation: Liquidity Crunch and Accumulation Dynamics

On-chain data underscores a structural shift in XRP's liquidity profile. Exchange balances have plummeted to a 7-year low of 1.6 billion tokens, a 50% drop from October 2025 levels. This reduction in liquid supply has made the price increasingly sensitive to demand changes, particularly from institutional players. Whale activity has intensified, with 800 million XRP moved into cold storage and institutional custody in late December, signaling accumulation rather than distribution.

Order book thickness, however, remains a concern. Post-breakdown, XRP has traded in a range-bound pattern between $1.84 and $1.90, with the $1.93 level acting as a critical pivot as market data shows. While ETF inflows have absorbed $1.1 billion in assets since November 2025, they have yet to offset derivatives-driven selling pressure as reported. The derivatives layer shows reduced leverage, with Binance's XRP leverage ratio dropping to 0.18, minimizing the risk of forced liquidations. Yet, taker buy volume in futures has collapsed to $250 million from $5.8 billion, reflecting diminished speculative demand.

Institutional Demand and Regulatory Tailwinds

The launch of U.S. spot XRP ETFs in November 2025 has injected nearly $1 billion in inflows, outperforming many other crypto ETFs. This structural demand is supported by regulatory progress, including Ripple's Singapore license and the ongoing resolution of its SEC litigation, which has bolstered investor confidence. ETFs have absorbed over 1 billion XRP from exchanges, creating a supply crunch that could amplify price sensitivity to buying interest as financial data shows.

However, macroeconomic headwinds persist. Year-end liquidity constraints and a risk-off market environment have exacerbated selling pressure, limiting buying interest above the mid-$1.80s. Long-term holders have begun accumulating XRP as prices approach the $1.84–$1.90 range, with purchase volumes spiking 76% in two days according to market data. This divergence between short-term bearish momentum and long-term accumulation suggests a potential inflection point.

Accumulation Signals and Reversal Potential

Technical indicators hint at early reversal signals. The TD Sequential oscillator flashed a potential buy signal at the $2.00 support level in late December, historically associated with 18% rebounds. Long-term holders' increased participation-despite whale selling-indicates a shift in market sentiment toward accumulation as analysis shows. Meanwhile, ETF inflows continue to absorb supply, providing a counterbalance to short-term technical weaknesses as market data indicates.

A successful retest of $2.16 would require a surge in buying pressure to reclaim the level as resistance-turned-support. If bulls manage to clear $2.11, the path to $2.20–$2.26 becomes viable, aligning with ETF-driven demand. Conversely, a breakdown below $1.90 could trigger a cascade to the $1.82–$1.81 range, as market analysis suggests.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Crossroads

XRP's $2.16 level represents a high-stakes inflection point, where technical breakdowns, on-chain liquidity shifts, and institutional demand intersect. While the current bearish structure remains intact, the confluence of ETF inflows, whale accumulation, and regulatory tailwinds suggests a potential catalyst for a reversal. A clean breakout above $2.11 could reignite the $2.30–$2.50 target range by Q2 2026, but this hinges on overcoming macroeconomic headwinds and sustaining buying momentum. For now, the $2.00–$2.05 range will be critical in determining whether XRP's next move is a bearish capitulation or the start of a new bull phase.