Is XRP at a Pivotal Buy Point Before a Major Bull Run in 2026?

The cryptocurrency market in late 2025 has been a tale of two narratives: Bitcoin's volatile corrections and XRP's relative stability. While Bitcoin faced a sharp drawdown in October 2025, XRP maintained a defined trading range, supported by strategic partnerships and a resilient community. As we approach the end of the year, the question on every investor's mind is whether XRP is poised for a breakout in 2026-and if now is the time to enter.

Technical Analysis: A Neutral RSI and Bullish Momentum

XRP's technical indicators paint a cautiously optimistic picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 51, placing it in a neutral zone and suggesting balanced momentum without overbought or oversold conditions. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is expanding in positive territory, confirming bullish momentum. The histogram remains slightly positive, indicating buyers are defending short-term levels.

Price action is forming a bullish channel, with the potential to test key resistance levels. Immediate resistance lies at $2.550, a level that has repeatedly rejected upward movement. A sustained breakout above this threshold could target $2.700, while a breakdown below the ascending trendline might retest $2.300. On the 4-hour chart, XRP is consolidating within an ascending triangle pattern, a classic precursor to a breakout.

On-Chain Metrics: Growing Adoption and Mixed Ownership Signals

On-chain data reveals a surge in XRP wallet growth, with 21,595 new wallets created in a single week during Q4 2025-the fastest two-day surge since March 2025. This reflects growing adoption and a broadening base of smaller holders. However, ownership remains highly concentrated: the top 10% of addresses control a significant share of the supply, and Ripple Labs' escrow system continues to dictate the rate at which new XRP enters circulation.

Transaction volume trends show low volatility, with XRP trading in a tight range between $1.87 and $1.88. This balance between buyers and sellers suggests a period of consolidation, during which demand is gradually absorbing supply. The Network Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric at 0.428 indicates that traders are still in profit, though short-term holders have reduced their positions, signaling continued selling pressure.

Strategic Entry Timing: A Case for 2026 Optimism

Despite a 21% decline from its July 2025 peak of $3.66 to $1.85 in late December, XRP's fundamentals and technicals suggest a potential inflection point. Analysts project a price range of $2.40–$2.60 for 2026, driven by ETF optimism and regulatory clarity. The current price action, combined with growing on-chain adoption, positions XRP as a candidate for a bull run if macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments align favorably.

For investors, the key is to monitor the $2.550 resistance level. A breakout here could validate the bullish case, while a breakdown would signal further consolidation. Given the low volatility and tight trading range, now may be an opportune time to accumulate XRP at a discount to its projected 2026 targets.

Conclusion

XRP's technical and on-chain signals present a compelling case for a strategic entry point before a potential 2026 bull run. While risks remain-particularly around ownership concentration and macroeconomic shifts-the combination of growing adoption, bullish momentum, and favorable price levels makes a strong argument for positioning now. As always, investors should balance these signals with broader market trends and personal risk tolerance.