XRP at a Pivotal 21-Month EMA: Is History Repeating for a $27+ Rally?

XRP, the native token of the XRP Ledger, stands at a critical juncture as it retests its 21-month Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a technical level that has historically acted as a catalyst for explosive rallies. With the price hovering near $2.93 and forming a symmetric triangle pattern, the asset is poised for a breakout that could mirror its past surges in 2017 and 2021. This analysis examines the technical and on-chain signals, whale activity, and emerging ETF momentum to assess whether XRP is on the cusp of a $27+ rally.

Technical Analysis: Historical Patterns and Chart Setup

The 21 EMA has repeatedly served as a psychological and technical fulcrum for XRP. In 2017, XRP surged 1,610% after holding this level as support, while in 2021, a retest of the 21 EMA preceded a 414% rally despite regulatory headwinds from the SEC.

The current retest in June 2025 aligns closely with these historical patterns, with the price consolidating within a symmetric triangle bounded by $2.93 (lower trendline) and $3.31 (upper trendline).

Short-term support at $2.71 has held firm, indicating bullish momentum, while a break above $3.31 could trigger gains in the $6–$10 range. Analysts project conservative targets of $9.60 and aggressive estimates of $33, based on the average historical gains from prior EMA retests. The immediate resistance at $3.20 and $3.60 also mirrors pre-rally consolidation phases seen in earlier cycles.

On-Chain Metrics: Velocity, NVT, and Whale Activity

On-chain data reinforces the technical narrative. XRP's velocity-a measure of token circulation-peaked at 0.0324 in December 2025, driven by large whale transfers and increased exchange inflows. This surge in activity suggests heightened liquidity and market participation. Additionally, the Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio has dropped 71% from its peak, signaling improved network efficiency and stronger transactional support.

Whale activity, however, remains a double-edged sword. While reports indicate 510 million XRP sold in a single week, buyers have absorbed the pressure, stabilizing key support levels such as $2.02. This dynamic suggests a shift from bearish dumping to accumulation, a critical factor in sustaining a bullish trend.

ETF Momentum and Institutional Accumulation

Emerging ETF momentum further strengthens the case for a $27+ rally. XRP ETFs have attracted over $897 million in net inflows since mid-November 2025, with major issuers like Canary Capital, Bitwise, and Grayscale driving institutional demand. These funds have removed approximately 0.8% of the circulating supply from exchange liquidity, mimicking Bitcoin's supply contraction dynamics and reducing downward pressure on the price.

The launch of a liquid staking platform for XRP has also enhanced its utility within DeFi, transforming the token into a yield-bearing asset and attracting long-term holders. This innovation, combined with ETF-driven accumulation, creates a robust foundation for sustained price appreciation.

Derivatives and Funding Rates: Aggressive Long Exposure

Derivatives markets reflect aggressive bullish positioning. XRP's funding rates have surged by over 127%, indicating heavy long exposure from traders anticipating a breakout. This metric, coupled with the ETF inflows and on-chain velocity, underscores a consensus among market participants that XRP is entering a new phase of institutional-driven growth.

Conclusion: A Confluence of Bullish Signals

The convergence of technical, on-chain, and institutional factors paints a compelling case for XRP's next bullish phase. Historical parallels with the 2017 and 2021 cycles, combined with current on-chain efficiency, whale accumulation, and ETF momentum, suggest that the asset is primed for a $27+ rally. While risks such as regulatory uncertainty and whale selling persist, the market's ability to absorb selling pressure and maintain key support levels indicates a strong likelihood of a repeat of past success. Investors should closely monitor the $3.31 breakout level and ETF inflow trends as critical indicators of the next move.