XRP's Path to a Major Rally: Key Levels Against BTC and ETH to Watch

In the volatile landscape of 2025, XRP has emerged as a focal point for both bearish pessimism and cautious optimism. While the asset faces technical headwinds, its weakening correlation with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) suggests a potential divergence in market dynamics. This article dissects XRP's path to a major rally through technical analysis and cross-asset performance metrics, identifying critical levels and trends that could redefine its trajectory.

Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance, and Momentum

XRP's price action in late 2025 has been defined by bearish consolidation. A death cross-where the 50-day moving average (EMA) crosses below the 200-day EMA-has signaled prolonged seller dominance, according to a Coinotag report. Currently, XRP hovers near $2.23, just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $2.16, a critical support zone, according to a Coinedition analysis. Below this, $1.94 and $1.58 represent deeper psychological barriers. Conversely, the 50-day EMA at $2.27 and 200-day EMA at $2.36 act as dynamic resistance levels. A sustained breakout above $2.53 (the 200 EMA) would validate bullish momentum, while a breakdown below $2.16 could accelerate downward pressure, according to the Coinedition analysis.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for XRP remains at 40, nearing oversold territory but lacking bullish divergence-a sign that sellers still control the narrative, according to the Coinotag report. On-chain data from Santiment and TradingView further underscores weak accumulation, with trading volume failing to confirm any short-term reversal, according to the Coinotag report. Investors must monitor these levels closely, as a breach above $2.53 could trigger a retest of the $3.00 psychological threshold.

Cross-Asset Performance: Divergence and Institutional Sentiment

XRP's relationship with BTC and ETH has grown increasingly independent. While Bitcoin ETFs recorded $524 million in inflows by late November 2025, according to a Coinfomania report, XRP's 12-month performance against BTC showed a mere 2.02% uptick in the XRP/BTC ratio-the weakest positive cycle to date, according to an Ambcrypto analysis. This decoupling suggests XRP is no longer a pure beta play on broader crypto cycles.

Meanwhile, XRP's quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) price surge of 29% to $2.85 outperformed both BTC and ETH, according to a Coinpaper report. This outperformance is amplified by Ethereum's struggles: ETF outflows of $107 million in late November 2025, according to the Coinfomania report, contrast sharply with Bitcoin's institutional embrace. For XRP, this divergence presents an opportunity. If the asset can sustain its relative strength against ETH and BTC, it may attract capital fleeing overleveraged altcoins like Shiba Inu (SHIB), which has shown signs of accumulation, according to the Coinotag report.

Strategic Implications and Investor Takeaways

The technical and cross-asset dynamics paint a nuanced picture. XRP's immediate path to a rally hinges on three factors:
1. Breaking above $2.53 (200 EMA) to confirm bullish momentum.
2. Sustaining volume above 100-day averages to signal accumulation.
3. Maintaining relative strength against ETH amid Ethereum's ETF-driven weakness.

Investors should also watch for fundamental catalysts-such as regulatory clarity or DeFi adoption on the XRP Ledger-that could tilt the balance in favor of buyers. While the current environment remains bearish, XRP's technical structure and weakening correlation with BTC/ETH position it as a high-conviction trade for those willing to navigate short-term volatility.