XRP's Path in December 2025: Can ETF Momentum Offset Selling Pressure?

The XRP ecosystem in late 2025 is a study in contrasts. On one hand, institutional demand via newly launched XRP spot ETFs has surged, with inflows exceeding $666.61 million since mid-November and pushing the asset's price from a low of $1.81 to $2.19 in just weeks. On the other, on-chain analytics reveal persistent selling pressure from long-term holders and a stubborn supply cluster that could cap upside potential. This article dissects the tension between institutional-driven bullish momentum and bearish on-chain signals to assess XRP's trajectory in December 2025.

ETF Momentum: A Structural Tailwind

The approval of XRP spot ETFs in December 2025 marked a watershed moment for institutional adoption. Franklin Templeton's XRPZ and Grayscale's GXRP alone attracted $164 million in combined inflows on their opening day, while five active XRP ETFs now hold 0.5% of the circulating supply, totaling $628 million in assets under management. Analysts project this trend could accelerate, with average daily inflows of $40–$60 million potentially swelling ETF assets to $6.7 billion by late 2026.

This structural demand is already reshaping XRP's liquidity profile. Exchange-held XRP has declined by 29% since mid-November, as ETFs absorb supply at a pace that could drain 5–6 billion XRP in 14–17 months. The staggered launch of XRP ETFs-unlike the concentrated Bitcoin ETF rollout in early 2024-has also created a continuous stream of market catalysts, sustaining institutional and retail attention.

On-Chain Bearish Signals: A Looming Headwind

Despite ETF optimism, on-chain data tells a more nuanced story. Long-term holders (1–3 years) have been actively reducing balances, contributing to ongoing selling pressure. This activity is compounded by a dense supply cluster between $2.445 and $2.460, where a significant portion of XRP's circulating supply remains concentrated.

Price action further complicates the bullish narrative. While XRP's 30-day transaction volume spiked to 1.05 million, reflecting robust network activity, the price failed to break above key resistance levels. Technical analysts caution that a sustained rebound above $2.33 and a breakout of the descending trendline near $2.45–$2.50 are prerequisites for a meaningful rally. Meanwhile, ChatGPT's bearish projection of $2.02 for December 2025 underscores the fragility of current gains, citing XRP's position below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Contrarian Thesis: Can ETFs Overcome the Bear Case?

The crux of the debate lies in whether ETF-driven demand can outpace on-chain selling. Proponents argue that institutional inflows-now exceeding $1 billion in assets-will eventually absorb the supply bottleneck. For instance, if ETFs continue to absorb 339 million XRP monthly (as seen in late November), the 5–6 billion XRP supply drain forecast could materialize within 14–17 months. This structural absorption, combined with RippleNet's expanding adoption, may create a floor for XRP's price even as long-term holders offload balances.

However, skeptics counter that the current ETF momentum is insufficient to counteract the gravitational pull of the $2.445–$2.460 supply cluster. Without a coordinated effort to break above $2.75-a level analysts view as critical for triggering a broader rally-XRP risks stagnating in a bearish consolidation phase.

Conclusion: A Tug-of-War in December 2025

XRP's December 2025 outlook hinges on a delicate balance between institutional optimism and on-chain reality. While ETF inflows have injected $666 million in structural demand, the asset remains vulnerable to selling pressure from long-term holders and a stubborn supply overhang. For contrarians, the key question is whether ETF-driven absorption can create a self-sustaining cycle of demand, allowing XRP to break free of its technical constraints. For now, the market is in a holding pattern-waiting for either a breakout above $2.75 or a collapse in ETF inflows to determine the next chapter.