XRP's Path to Breakout: A Technical Analyst's Perspective on Key Resistance Levels

The Technical Case for XRP's Breakout

As of October 2025, XRP is trading near $2.90, having successfully defended critical support levels such as $2.40 and $1.91, according to an FXLeaders report. Technical analysts argue that the token is poised for a bullish breakout if this support remains intact. Analysts at FXLeaders add that a key resistance level to monitor is $2.65, which, if breached, could signal the start of a new upward trend. Beyond this, the descending triangle pattern suggests a potential target at $3.02, with a successful breakout potentially triggering a rally toward $3.61 and even XRP's all-time high of $3.66, per a BeInCrypto analysis.

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The 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2.58 remains a critical benchmark; FXLeaders notes that as long as XRP stays above this level, the bullish framework for the remainder of 2025 remains intact. Analysts also highlight Fibonacci retracement levels between $1.60 and $1.80 as vital support zones. FXLeaders suggests that if XRP remains above these levels, extension targets of $8.30, $13.39, and even $26.63 could become relevant.

On-Chain Sentiment: A Bullish Undercurrent

On-chain data reinforces the technical narrative. XRP has seen robust wallet activity, with over 1 million new wallets created in 2025 alone, bringing active addresses to 7 million, according to an SR-WConsulting report. That report also notes daily wallet activations have surpassed 3,000 and that the XRP Ledger processed 70 million transactions in July 2025, supported by infrastructure upgrades like high-speed validator servers in New York.

Institutional confidence is also evident. FXLeaders reported $210 million in institutional inflows in September 2025, and over 439 million XRP ($1.2 billion) was withdrawn from exchanges in late September, signaling long-term accumulation. The Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio has dropped to 108.56, suggesting undervaluation relative to on-chain activity, per FXLeaders. Meanwhile, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for XRP has fallen to 0.95, its lowest in six months, indicating that most holders are selling at a loss—a potential precursor to a market reversal, according to a Cryptopolitan report.

Catalysts and Risks

The most immediate catalyst for XRP is the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) rulings on six spot XRP ETF applications, scheduled from October 18 to October 25, 2025, according to a CoinPedia forecast. Analysts estimate these approvals could unlock $4–$8 billion in institutional capital, potentially propelling XRP toward $3.62 by month-end, per a CoinCentral analysis. Historically, October has been a challenging month for XRP, with average returns of -4.5% over the past decade, a trend BeInCrypto highlights. However, this year's context is unique: Q4 has historically been XRP's strongest period, averaging 51% gains, including a 240% rally in Q4 2024, as noted by CoinCentral.

A critical risk lies in a breakdown below key support levels. If XRP falls below $2.40, it could retest the Fibonacci zone of $1.60–$1.80, which FXLeaders identified as important support. However, the token's recent resilience—combined with regulatory clarity post-Ripple's SEC settlement and the launch of Ripple's institutional stablecoin, RLUSD—strengthens its fundamentals, according to CoinCentral.

Conclusion

XRP's technical and on-chain indicators paint a compelling case for a breakout. With institutional inflows, a favorable NVT ratio, and regulatory catalysts aligning, the token is well-positioned to test key resistance levels in the coming weeks. If the $3.02 barrier is breached, XRP could target $3.61 and beyond, potentially approaching $5 by November 2025, as CoinCentral suggests. For investors, the combination of technical strength and on-chain bullishness suggests a high-probability trade, provided key support levels hold.