XRP's Path to $66: A Market Cap-Driven Investment Thesis

The idea of XRP reaching $66 may seem fantastical at first glance, but when viewed through the lens of comparative valuation analysis, it becomes a plausible-if ambitious-scenario. By examining XRP's potential to capture the market caps of assets like silver or Apple, we can assess the feasibility of such a price target and the macroeconomic, institutional, and regulatory factors that could catalyze it.

Comparative Valuation: XRP vs. Silver and Apple

As of December 29, 2025, XRP trades at $1.85 with a market cap of $129.28 billion and a circulating supply of 60.68 billion tokens according to data. To reach $66, XRP would need a market cap of approximately $4 trillion (60.68 billion tokens × $66). This figure is not arbitrary-it aligns with the market caps of two of the world's most valuable assets: silver ($4.05 trillion) and Apple ($4.041 trillion) as market data shows.

If XRP were to capture even a fraction of these markets, the price implications are staggering. For instance, capturing 10% of silver's market cap would require XRP to reach $6.75, while capturing 10% of Apple's would demand $6.70. Scaling this logic, a full capture of either asset's market cap would necessitate XRP's price to surge by over 3,500%.

Feasibility of Market Cap Growth

The feasibility of such growth hinges on three pillars: institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and regulatory tailwinds.

1. Institutional Adoption and ETF Momentum

XRP has seen unprecedented institutional adoption in late 2025 and early 2026. Spot XRP ETFs absorbed $483 million in December 2025 alone, with 30 consecutive days of inflows before a brief pause on December 26. By early January 2026, cumulative inflows had surpassed $1.37 billion, outpacing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which recorded outflows during the same period. This institutional demand has already driven XRP's price to $2.40 in early 2026, despite a pullback from its July 2025 high of $3.65 as reported.

The implications are clear: if XRP ETFs maintain their current pace and attract $10 billion in total inflows by late 2026, the capital would need to purchase significant quantities of XRP, tightening supply and potentially pushing the price toward $4 or even $8 per token according to analysis. However, reaching $66 would require a far more aggressive trajectory-potentially $100 billion in ETF inflows-assuming no new supply enters the market.

2. Regulatory Clarity and Legal Resolution

Ripple's 2025 SEC settlement resolved a seven-year legal battle, providing critical regulatory clarity. This resolution has positioned XRP as a viable addition to diversified crypto portfolios, particularly for institutions seeking exposure to a token with real-world utility in cross-border payments and tokenization as noted.

Moreover, the potential passage of bipartisan crypto market structure legislation in the U.S. in 2026 could further integrate XRP into traditional finance, attracting more institutional capital. Such regulatory tailwinds reduce the risk of sudden legal headwinds and create a framework for sustained growth.

3. Macroeconomic Catalysts

The macroeconomic environment in early 2026 is also favorable. With rising public sector debt and inflation concerns, investors are increasingly seeking alternative stores of value. XRP's efficiency in cross-border payments and its role in Ripple's broader financial infrastructure (e.g., RLUSD stablecoin, Hidden Road acquisition) position it as a hybrid asset-both a utility token and a speculative store of value.

Additionally, tighter global liquidity and high interest rates may reduce risk appetite, but XRP's low transaction costs and institutional-grade custody solutions make it an attractive option for capital preservation and growth.

Supply Dynamics and Total Addressable Market

XRP's fixed supply of 100 billion tokens, with over 60 billion in circulation, creates a scarcity-driven demand model. However, reaching $66 would require not only sustained demand but also a controlled supply. Declining exchange-held reserves-now at multi-year lows-suggest that tokens are moving into custody solutions and private wallets, tightening liquidity and amplifying price sensitivity to institutional buying.

The total addressable market for XRP is robust. Ripple's expansion into tokenization and on-demand liquidity, coupled with its acquisitions of Hidden Road and GTreasury, has solidified its role in financial technology. If XRP becomes the dominant token for cross-border settlements or tokenized assets, its utility could justify a market cap expansion beyond its current $129 billion.

Risks and Realism

While the $66 target is mathematically possible, it requires a perfect storm of sustained ETF inflows, regulatory stability, and macroeconomic conditions. Historical precedents for such growth are rare; even Bitcoin's peak market cap of $1 trillion (as of 2021) required years of adoption. XRP's path to $4 trillion would demand exponential growth in both utility and demand, far exceeding its current trajectory.

However, the current data suggests a more modest but still significant upside. If XRP captures 10% of Apple's market cap, it would trade at $6.70-a 260% increase from its December 2025 price. This scenario is more realistic and aligns with the ETF inflow trends observed in early 2026.

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Scenario

XRP's journey to $66 is a speculative but analytically grounded investment thesis. While the token's current fundamentals-strong ETF inflows, regulatory clarity, and institutional adoption-support a bullish case, the path to $66 requires extraordinary market conditions. Investors must weigh the potential rewards against the risks of regulatory shifts, competition from other cryptocurrencies, and macroeconomic volatility.

For those willing to take the plunge, XRP's unique position in the cross-border payments sector and its fixed supply model offer a compelling case for long-term value creation. As the crypto market matures, XRP's ability to balance utility and scarcity may prove to be its greatest asset.