XRP's Path to $36: Decoding Wave 3 in the Elliott Pattern

The cryptocurrency market is no stranger to volatility, but for XRP, the convergence of technical and macroeconomic catalysts is creating a compelling case for a multi-year bull run. With the resolution of regulatory uncertainty, institutional adoption accelerating, and a robust Elliott Wave structure in place, XRP is poised to break out of its consolidation phase and target $36 by the end of the current bull cycle.

Technical Foundations: Elliott Wave and Fibonacci Extensions

Dark Defender's analysis of XRP's Elliott Wave pattern provides a clear roadmap for the next phase of its price action. According to his latest assessment, XRP has completed Wave 3 of its five-wave impulsive structure, with a target range of $3.01–$3.07 according to analysis. The critical test now lies at $3.13, a resistance level that could either validate bullish momentum or trigger a bearish E Wave decline to $2.74 according to analysis. A breakout above $3.13 would invalidate bearish scenarios and signal the start of Wave 5, the final leg of the pattern, which could push XRP toward $5.85 according to analysis.

Fibonacci extensions further reinforce this thesis. A 261.8% extension from prior swings targets $5.85, while longer-term projections suggest a potential $18.22 level if the $3.33 threshold is cleared according to analysis. These levels align with broader Elliott Wave models, which identify XRP as being in a Wave 3 expansion phase, with Wave 5 potentially extending into the $36–$37 range according to analysis.

Key support zones, such as the $2.2222–$1.8815 range according to analysis, have already acted as a floor for XRP's price, indicating strong institutional accumulation. A weekly close above $2.85 would confirm the transition into a powerful Wave 3 impulse, with the first leg targeting $5.85 and the final Wave 5 aiming for $36.76 according to analysis.

Macroeconomic Catalysts: Institutional Adoption and Regulatory Clarity

Technical patterns alone cannot drive a 1,300% move. XRP's institutional adoption in 2025 has been a game-changer. Ripple's $125 million settlement with the SEC in August 2025 removed the cloud of regulatory uncertainty, classifying XRP as a non-security for public exchange sales. This clarity has unlocked a flood of institutional capital, with nine asset managers filing for spot XRP ETFs, projected to attract $5–7 billion in inflows by 2026.

Ripple's strategic acquisitions, such as the $1.25 billion purchase of Hidden Road to form Ripple Prime, have positioned XRP as a core asset in Wall Street's infrastructure. Ripple Prime now offers institutional-grade services like clearing, financing, and OTC trading, with XRP and RLUSD (Ripple's dollar-backed stablecoin) serving as collateral according to analysis. This integration into traditional finance's operational backbone is a macroeconomic tailwind that transcends speculative trading.

Real-world utility is another pillar. Ripple's partnership with Mastercard, WebBank, and Gemini for on-chain settlement of credit card payments using RLUSD demonstrates XRP's role in streamlining cross-border transactions according to analysis. The XRP Ledger's ability to settle transactions in 3–5 seconds with minimal fees makes it a direct competitor to SWIFT, particularly in emerging markets like Latin America and Southeast Asia according to analysis.

Convergence of Technical and Macro Trends

The alignment of technical and macroeconomic factors is what makes XRP's $36 target plausible. From a technical perspective, the Elliott Wave pattern suggests a multi-year rally is in progress, with Wave 5 potentially extending into 2027. From a macroeconomic standpoint, institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and cross-border payment innovation are creating a flywheel effect that could propel XRP beyond its 2025–2026 targets.

Analysts like Maelius and Egrag have projected $10–$27 price levels by mid-2026, with Wave 5 scenarios reaching $30–$50 according to analysis. These projections are not speculative-they are grounded in XRP's utility as a settlement asset and its growing role in tokenized finance.

Positioning for the Breakout

For investors, the key is to identify the inflection points in XRP's journey. A breakout above $3.13 would invalidate bearish scenarios and confirm the start of Wave 5. A weekly close above $2.85 would signal the transition into a powerful Wave 3 impulse, with $5.85 as the immediate target according to analysis.

Institutional tailwinds, including ETF approvals and Ripple Prime's expansion, provide a macroeconomic floor for XRP's price. Meanwhile, the $36 target is not just a technical projection-it's a convergence of regulatory clarity, institutional demand, and real-world utility that could redefine XRP's role in global finance.

As the market prepares for the next leg of the bull cycle, XRP's path to $36 is not just possible-it's inevitable. The question is no longer if, but when.