XRP's Path to $2.40: A Strategic Correction Before a Stronger Rally

The XRP price is at a pivotal crossroads in September 2025, with technical indicators and market sentiment pointing to a potential correction toward $2.40 before a renewed bullish phase. This isn't just a short-term dip-it's a calculated reset that could set the stage for a powerful rebound. Let's break down the numbers and the narrative.

Technical Analysis: A Battle for Control

XRP is currently trading near $2.87, squeezed between a descending trendline and a cluster of exponential moving averages (EMAs) at $2.81–$2.96, according to a CoinEdition analysis. The $2.80 support level is critical: if bulls defend it, the price could rally to $2.95 and $3.05. But a breakdown below $2.80 would expose the token to a 10–15% drop toward $2.60, with $2.40 as the next major psychological floor, as noted in an OnTheNode report.

The RSI has rebounded to 66 on the 30-minute chart, hinting at recovering momentum, but the MACD remains bearish, with EMAs capping upside - the CoinEdition analysis adds that this divergence suggests a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Meanwhile, the 4-hour chart reveals a bear flag pattern forming around $2.40–$2.46, with a potential price target of $4 if the resistance is breached, according to a Blockonomi analysis. However, the TD Sequential indicator has flashed a sell signal, and Blockonomi also warns of a short-term correction before any meaningful breakout.

Market Sentiment: Whales vs. Bears

Whale activity is a mixed bag. Coinglass reported $8.52 million in net inflows on September 2, signaling renewed interest, a figure highlighted by CoinEdition. Yet, open interest (OI) has averaged $7.58 billion with a declining trend, reflecting waning confidence, which CoinEdition also notes. The OI-weighted funding rate at 0.0102% shows increased long exposure but remains within healthy bounds, avoiding overbought extremes, according to CoinEdition.

The broader market isn't helping. Bitcoin's dominance has siphoned capital away from altcoins like XRP, exacerbating bearish pressure, the The Currency Analytics article argues. However, whale accumulation of 340 million XRP in late August suggests positioning for a catalyst-like an XRP ETF approval, as Coindoo analysts suggest. If regulators greenlight such a product, the price could surge to $5 in Q4 2025, the Coindoo piece projects. Without it, a 20–25% correction to $2.20–$2.26 is a real risk, as the OnTheNode report outlines.

Historical Context: $2.40 as a Reset Point

The $2.40 level has historically acted as both support and resistance. In December 2024, XRP consolidated at this level as $288 million was withdrawn to private wallets, signaling reduced short-term selling pressure, according to a MoneyCheck report. By February 2025, the price fell to $2.42 after a 28.5% drop from $3.40, with $2.40 becoming a battleground for bulls, MoneyCheck notes.

Backtesting from 2022 to the present reveals that the $2.40 support level has been remarkably stable, with XRP maintaining a bullish trend despite periodic fluctuations, a pattern referenced by Coindoo. The cryptocurrency's resilience during market volatility, including regulatory uncertainties and macroeconomic shifts, underscores the strength of this support, a point emphasized by Blockonomi.

A symmetrical triangle on the monthly chart, formed over 334 days of consolidation, suggests a breakout could occur as early as mid-September 2025, Blockonomi observes. If XRP clears the $2.40–$2.46 resistance zone, it could target $3.00 or even the seven-year high of $3.40, per Blockonomi. Conversely, a failure to hold $2.40 may trigger a deeper correction to $2.30–$2.26, Blockonomi warns.

The Path Forward: Strategic Buy-the-Dip or Run for Cover?

This correction to $2.40 isn't a death knell-it's a strategic setup. Bulls need to defend $2.80 and $2.77 to avoid a deeper selloff. A successful rebound from $2.40 could trigger a falling wedge pattern, with Dark Defender predicting a retest of $3.33 and a potential all-time high, a scenario discussed by Coindoo.

However, investors must watch for red flags. A breakdown below $2.70–$2.75 would expose XRP to a 15–20% drop, with $2.20 as a hard floor, as the OnTheNode report cautions. The key catalysts to monitor are ETF approvals, Fed rate decisions, and on-chain adoption metrics.

Conclusion: Positioning for the Next Leg

XRP's journey to $2.40 is a calculated risk. For the bullish case, this correction could be a buying opportunity ahead of a rally driven by ETF approvals or institutional adoption. But without a clear catalyst, the bears could extend the pain. Investors should allocate cautiously, using stop-loss orders below $2.70 and scaling into positions near $2.40 if the fundamentals hold.

The market is watching-and so should you.