XRP's Path to $10: The Critical Role of Wave 5 and Key Support Levels

The XRP price narrative in November 2025 is increasingly defined by a convergence of technical indicators and structural momentum. With the cryptocurrency trading near $2.54 and showing signs of consolidation, analysts are turning to Elliott Wave theory and Fibonacci projections to map its potential trajectory toward $10. This analysis synthesizes insights from leading technical experts, regulatory developments, and on-chain metrics to outline the conditions that could catalyze such a move.

Elliott Wave Structure: Wave iii Completed, Wave v Imminent?

Elliott Wave analysis suggests XRP is navigating a multi-phase corrective and impulsive pattern. According to crypto technician Hov, the asset has completed Wave iii of a larger impulsive structure, with Wave iv currently in progress. A critical weekly close above $2.94 would reconfirm the bullish trend, potentially unlocking Wave v-a final impulsive leg that could drive prices significantly higher, as noted in Investor Empires.

Wave iii, which concluded with a peak near $2.94, aligns with historical patterns where XRP has demonstrated strong follow-through after prolonged basing phases, as detailed in Coinotag. If Wave iv adheres to the typical 3-3-5 corrective structure, traders should monitor key Fibonacci retracement levels for pullbacks: 0.236 at $2.094, 0.382 at $1.548, and 0.618 at $0.950, as noted in Investor Empires. A failure to hold above $0.950 could signal a deeper correction, but sustained volume above $2.42 (a potential Wave iv termination point) would strengthen the case for Wave v.

Fibonacci Projections: From $5.5 to $10 and Beyond

Fibonacci extensions and historical cycles further reinforce the case for a $10 target. Analysts like Egrag Crypto and Matt Hughes have identified multiple confluence points. For instance, Hughes outlines a 1.27 Fibonacci extension target at $8.30, with "champion levels" extending to $12.30, as reported in Crypto Basic. These projections are underpinned by XRP's alignment with its 89-day historical cycles, which have historically preceded 50%+ gains after consolidation, as reported in Coinotag.

The most immediate resistance lies at $2.90 (0.786 Fib level), followed by $3.40. A breakout above $3.40 would validate the continuation of a bullish trend and set the stage for a test of the $5.558 level-a target cited by Hov as a potential first milestone, as noted in Investor Empires. From there, the 2.618 extension at $26.60 and the 3.14 extension at $113.13 become relevant, though these require sustained volume and institutional participation, as noted in Crypto News Land.

Catalysts and Risks: Regulatory Momentum and On-Chain Metrics

Beyond technicals, XRP's trajectory is influenced by regulatory and on-chain developments. The U.S. Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) listing of nine Spot XRP ETFs, including offerings from Bitwise and Franklin, has signaled growing institutional acceptance, as noted in Coinotag. This development, coupled with open interest reaching $1.32 billion and a 7% 24-hour price surge, suggests a critical inflection point, as noted in Coinotag.

However, risks remain. CasiTrades warns that XRP may be entering the final leg of a corrective structure, with rejection near $2.68 resistance potentially triggering a test of $1.65 support, as noted in TimeStabloid. A breakdown below $1.65-a 0.618 Fibonacci extension level-could extend the downtrend to $0.950, invalidating the Wave v thesis.

Conclusion: A Confluence of Technical and Fundamental Drivers

XRP's path to $10 hinges on three key factors: a weekly close above $2.94 to confirm Wave v, sustained volume above $2.42 to validate Wave iv, and institutional adoption driven by ETF listings. While Fibonacci projections offer a roadmap to $10 and beyond, traders must remain vigilant about support levels and on-chain sentiment. If the current consolidation resolves in favor of the bulls, XRP could mirror its 2021 surge, leveraging both technical momentum and regulatory tailwinds to redefine its price ceiling.